[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-notes remain afloat amid declines in oil but with upside capped after the recent central bank deluge and with overnight cash treasuries trade shut
USTs: +6 ticks
- Remained afloat amid declines in oil prices, but with the upside capped after the recent choppy performance and curve flattening on hawkish central bank expectations in response to the Iran war, while overnight price action is also contained by the absence of cash treasuries trade due to the holiday closure in Tokyo.
Bunds: +17 ticks
- Rebounded from the prior day's trough but with the upside capped following hawkish ECB reports that officials see the possibility of a rate hike at the April meeting, although sources also noted that April is likely too early for any rate hike, and that June is more likely.
Context
T-notes are showing modest gains despite lower oil prices, but their upside seems limited by recent hawkish sentiment from central banks, particularly following the geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran war. Additionally, the absence of cash treasuries trading due to the holiday in Tokyo is keeping overnight price movements restrained, suggesting a cautious market outlook going forward.
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