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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Treasury futures are lacklustre after reversing the ceasefire-driven advances

Treasury futures are showing weakness after a brief rally driven by ceasefire optimism, indicating diminished demand as geopolitical tensions persist with ongoing strikes.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Treasury futures are lacklustre after reversing the ceasefire-driven advances

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USTs: -2 ticks

  • Trades lacklustre after it gave back all of its ceasefire-related spoils as strikes continued in the 24 hours after the announcement, and as negotiators face a tough task of bridging the gaps between the US and Iran peace plans during upcoming talks later in the week. Furthermore, demand is also not helped by looming supply and after the FOMC Minutes broadly validated the hawkish hold at the March meeting.

Bunds: -24 ticks

  • Pulled back following the prior day's surge and returned to beneath the 126.00 level, while participants look ahead to German Trade and Industrial Production data.

JGBs: -21 ticks

  • Fully retraced the initial ceasefire-driven advances, with price action confined to within the 130.00 level amid a lack of tier-1 data overnight and few fresh catalysts, while a 5yr JGB auction also looms.
Context

The reversal coincides with the FOMC Minutes reinforcing a hawkish stance, which, coupled with upcoming supply concerns, suggests a challenging environment for USTs. Furthermore, Bunds and JGBs reflect similar trends with a lack of significant data underpinning price movements, highlighting broader risk-off sentiment in fixed income markets.

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