[MARKET ANALYSIS] Treasury futures pare some of their gains as oil recovers and supply looms

Newsquawk StaffOil newsPublished 24 Mar 2026, 02:33 UTC

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Treasury futures pare some of their gains as oil recovers and supply looms

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USTs: -11.5 ticks

T-note futures faded some of the prior day's gains as the partial rebound in oil prices spurred upside in yields, while prices are also not helped by incoming supply with a US 2yr note auction due later.

Bunds: -13 ticks

Continued to pull back from yesterday's peak with price action across asset classes largely driven by recent fluctuations in oil, while demand for Bunds is also contained ahead of a total of EUR 7bln of Bobl and Bund issuances scheduled for Tuesday to Wednesday.

JGBs: +24 ticks

Remained afloat after reverting to around the 131.00 level, and with participants digesting the softer-than-expected Japanese CPI data, while participants also await a 40yr JGB auction.

Context

Treasury futures are pulling back as the recovery in oil prices is driving yields higher, alongside an upcoming US 2-year note auction that adds pressure. This suggests a shift in market sentiment as traders reassess their positions in light of these developments, especially with oil's impact on inflation expectations and overall fixed income demand. The simultaneous pricing in of new supply from both USTs and Bunds indicates caution in the fixed income markets as participants adjust ahead of these auctions.

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