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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD and NOK outperform, GBP shrugs off political instability as PMIs firm, NZD underperforms

The G10 FX landscape shows the USD and NOK benefiting from higher oil prices, indicating a risk-on mood while the NZD underperforms amid tightening expectations.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD and NOK outperform, GBP shrugs off political instability as PMIs firm, NZD underperforms

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  • G10 FX is showing a picture of higher oil prices, with USD and NOK outperforming and Brent +0.5%. 
  • NZD is the worst performer today, but it remains positive for the week as markets continue to add to tightening bets: 90bps expected by year-end, 50/50 in May meeting, first fully priced in July. Aussie benefits from encouraging flash Manufacturing and Services PMI. AUD/NZD +0.2% after bouncing off support at Wednesday's low of 1.2105. In recent trade, the Antipodean cross found resistance at 1.2150.
  • This morning saw the release of EZ flash PMIs, which were broadly lower and saw a bout of pressure in EUR. The ECB will welcome the French print, which noted passthrough to prices charged for goods and services was contained. The German and EZ-wide figures put the council in a trickier place, where both noted price pressures not seen since the pandemic. Ultimately, the ECB will likely stand pat on rates until it can gauge second-round effects. As mentioned, EUR saw modest downside on the French figure, and there was no reaction to German and EZ print despite inflationary indications. EUR/USD unchanged and either side of the 1.17 mark.
  • EUR/GBP is also unchanged despite continued UK political developments, where the PM's cabinet loyalists are said to have turned on the PM, according to the Telegraph. For now, the pound is unreactive as the PM is broadly expected to remain in post up to the May local elections. This morning saw a stronger-than-expected PMI release, and as the internals pointed to marked inflationary pressures, GBP saw upside, though it remains flat against the EUR. The cross continues to trade below the 0.87 handle, currently 0.8660, marking April lows.
Context

Notably, the GBP remains resilient despite political challenges, likely supported by stronger-than-expected PMIs, which could bolster rate expectations ahead of upcoming elections. This divergence reflects varying economic outlooks and inflation pressures in the respective regions, which traders should watch for potential currency volatility.

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