[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD continues its war-related ascent, CHF underperforms, GBP lags into the Spring Statement

DXY continues to extend higher, with the geopolitical environment remaining turbulent, and with recent US commentary suggesting no near-term solution to the war. In brief, the IRGC continues to threaten any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, whilst President Trump warned of larger strikes against Iran. (Newsquawk analysis on the war on the headline feed at 08:15 / 03:15 ET). For the time being, DXY resides at the upper end of a 98.43 to 99.22 range, and now trading at levels not seen since late Jan’26; another leg higher could see the retest of January 19 high at 99.47, and then the round 99.50 mark thereafter.
EUR and GBP continue to remain pressured by the ongoing Iranian war – both are net-importers of energy, as such, have been considerably pressured in the past couple of session. Geopols aside, the EUR will have EZ HICP to digest – albeit may prove to be a bit stale, given the ECB will likely have to consider the inflationary/growth impacts of higher energy prices. UK-specific traders will also be attentive of the UK’s Spring Statement – it is likely to be a “non-event”, though focus will remain on the OBR, DMO forecasts and the implied headroom for Chancellor Reeves. (A Newsquawk primer is on the headline feed at 09:01 GMT / 04:01 EST)
CHF continues to underperform vs peers. As above, Switzerland is a net-importer of energy, with downside also exacerbated by reports that the SNB is increasingly prepared to intervene. This stems the haven-related strength, that would otherwise be expected during times of geopolitical turmoil. Sticking with havens, the JPY also continues to weaken against the USD. USD/JPY now trades around 157.82, and is gradually edging its head back towards the touted intervention zone of 158-160. Further upside would likely see the resurgence of jawboning via Japanese officials. This perhaps explains why the JPY is holding up better vs peers (albeit is still lower vs USD). Earlier, Japanese Unemployment ticked a touch higher in January, but had little impact on the currency.