[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD firms against most G10s, particularly vs. high beta though AUD and JPY lead after data
- G10s show mixed performance with AUD and JPY leading after data, while high-beta currencies mostly lag but sit within yesterday’s ranges.
- USD attempts to rebound today with broad based strength against high-beta cyclicals but weakness vs. Aussie and Yen after respective strong domestic data overnight. DXY attempts to rebound after modest losses on Tuesday, but remains within yesterday’s 98.86-99.11 range for now with macro catalysts light into PCE and NVIDIA earnings today. In terms of the little news we have seen, Fed's Barkin did not add too much to the Fed narrative but noted a July hold was a “close call”.
- EUR is resilient to the modest USD strength with the pair flat today; action which comes after the influential ECB’s Schnabel said the “economy looks to be gaining further momentum.”, which ING suggests “should cement expectations for a 25bp rate hike” in September. EUR/USD lost steam at 1.1680 which has proven resistance over the past few days following a brief period above 1.17 last week. GBP tracks the weaker Buck with Cable continuing to range trade above 1.3620; the Ofgem price cap is to be lifted by 4% from October 1st as expected, while Cornwall insight sees a further 9% rise in January, unwelcome news for UK Policymakers.
- AUD is the G10 outperformer after Aussie CPI beat estimates, remaining above the RBA’s 3% upper inflation target with the RBA’s preferred measure, trimmed mean, unchanged at 3.6% Y/Y above expectations of 3.5%. Unwelcome news for the RBA where a hike in either Sept/Nov are not yet fully priced by markets; banks remain split on this matter with Westpac and UoB saying a November hike could be in play though others shifting calls towards November, while OIS for September doubled from 3 to 6bps. AUD/USD +0.3% on the day, the pair could look towards 0.72, a level briefly eclipsed in May, should pricing turn more hawkish. MUFG notes the risks are starting to shift to a stronger Aussie but cautions positioning is starting to look stretched, referencing the 2yr AU-US swap spread. JPY similarly outperforms after hot Services PPI data from Japan, USD/JPY around 159.00.
Sessions of this kind, a broad dollar bid against high-beta cyclicals with the antipodean and yen outperforming on domestic inflation surprises, have a well-worn template: the idiosyncratic rate story overrides the common dollar factor for the affected pairs, while everything else drifts inside prior ranges awaiting the next US catalyst. The transmission here runs through front-end rate differentials rather than risk sentiment: hotter Australian trimmed mean and Japanese services PPI reprice the local policy path, and the tell is the behaviour of the two-year swap spread against the US, which the note itself flags as the constraint on further Aussie upside given stretched positioning. The distinction worth drawing is between currencies moving on their own central bank repricing (AUD, JPY, and EUR on hawkish ECB commentary) and those simply tracking the dollar leg (GBP, the high-beta complex); the former can extend against USD strength, the latter historically fade once the common driver reasserts. Single-official remarks of the Barkin type rarely shift the path on their own; they matter only insofar as they prefigure the committee's median. The near-term calendar, the US inflation print and a major earnings event flagged in the piece, is the sort of binary that typically caps ranges beforehand and resolves the dollar leg after, with local data surprises the main source of cross divergence in the interim.