[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD rebounds overnight amid weakness in its major peers, including JPY which breached the 162.00 level and fell to its lowest in 40 years

DXY: +0.2%

  • Dollar strengthened and recouped Monday's losses amid overnight weakness in its major peers, while risk sentiment is mixed with price action choppy in Asia heading into quarter-end and amid uncertainty regarding US-Iran talks in Doha. Furthermore, US data has been quiet to start the week heading into the key jobs data on Thursday, while there was little reaction seen following the SCOTUS decision to decline Trump's action to remove Fed's Cook in a 5-4 vote, which shifts the attention to the actual mortgage fraud case against Cook.

EUR/USD: -0.2%

  • Gradually faded some of the prior day's advances with the single currency looking to restest the 1.1400 level to the downside, despite the continued hawkish tone from ECB President Lagarde at Sintra, in which she noted they are more likely to face shocks in the coming years that push inflation away from the target, and that European resilience means the ECB can raise rates to address inflation without fear that it becomes a source of financial stress.

GBP/USD: -0.1%

  • Mildly pulled back after the prior day's outperformance and with overnight data showing UK BRC Shop Price Index and Lloyd's Barometer printed softer-than-expected, while final Q1 GDP data is scheduled later.

USD/JPY: +0.1%

  • Climbed higher and broke through the 162.00 level, which occurred near the time of the Tokyo fix and after comments from Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara, who wouldn't comment on FX levels, but noted that they are always ready to take necessary action on forex. This pressured Japan's currency to its weakest since 1986 and further stoked intervention risks, while it also prompted further jawboning from officials, with Finance Minister Katayama stating that they will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed, and that action could include decisive action as agreed in the joint statement with the US.

Antipodeans: AUD/USD -0.3% / NZD/USD -0.1%

  • Softened amid a rebound in the dollar and the mixed risk appetite, while AUD/USD also failed to benefit from the better-than-expected Chinese official PMIs and despite the RBA Minutes stating policy needed to remain restrictive and that the Board will do what is needed to achieve price stability, including raising rates if needed.
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