[MARKET UPDATE]: Crude tumbles with stocks, bonds and gold rallying after US President Trump said that over the last two days, both US and Iran had "very good, and productive" conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of hostilitites
- He has also instructed Dept. of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.
- Oil prices tumbled in response, Brent crude futures (May 26) fell from c. USD 113/bbl to lows of 96/bbl.
- 10-Year T-note futures (June 26) surged from 110-02 to 111-04; 2-year T-note futures rose from 103-09+ to 103-23.
- E-mini S&P futures (Jun 26) surged from 6,515 to 6750.
- Gold rose from 4,280 to 4,460.
- USD/JPY fell from 159.60 to 158.50.
- Money market pricing has also moved dovishly with rate hike bets being unwound.
Context
The market reaction indicates a significant shift in geopolitical sentiment as President Trump's announcement of productive talks with Iran led to a sharp decline in crude prices while boosting stocks and bonds. This suggests that the market is interpreting the possibility of reduced tensions as a positive signal for risk assets, while the dovish adjustment in rate hike expectations reflects fears that the Fed may need to respond to slower economic momentum if geopolitical risks ease.
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