[MARKET UPDATE] Energy/geopols continues to dictate fixed action
- In short, an unwinding of yesterday's price action early doors as crude upside lifted yields and weighed on fixed benchmarks, sending USTs to a 111-22 low (-6+ ticks) and Bunds to a 126.02 trough (-17 ticks).
- However, more recent updates relating to Larijani, the Iranian Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, have sparked a pullback in energy benchmarks and an uptick in general risk sentiment. Note, at the time of writing, the fate of Larijani has not been confirmed definitively, but the tone of reporting errs on the side of the Israeli strike against him having been successful.
- Action that has lifted the fixed space, as energy/yields ease, bringing Bunds into the green with gains of just over 10 ticks and USTs to essentially unchanged.
- For Gilts, the open was around the initial Larijani update, and as such, the benchmark only opened with downside of around five ticks before swiftly reversing and climbing to gains of 40 at best, hitting a 89.52 high.
- Ahead, the session is headlined by a few data points shortly from the EZ/Germany, though the Middle East shock potentially clouds the insight from the data. Thereafter, weekly ADP before US supply.
Context
The unwinding of prior price action reflects a market influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly surrounding Larijani's uncertain status after an Israeli strike. This has resulted in a temporary easing in energy prices and yields, leading to gains in fixed income assets, notably Bunds and Gilts. As traders digest potential data from the Eurozone amid these geopolitical tensions, the resulting sentiment could further shape market moves today.
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