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[MARKET UPDATE] Fixed benchmarks gain on US-Iran talk optimism

The optimism surrounding renewed US-Iran talks is pushing global fixed income benchmarks higher, indicating increased investor appetite for bonds amidst geopolitical uncertainties.

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[MARKET UPDATE] Fixed benchmarks gain on US-Iran talk optimism

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  • Global fixed benchmarks were firmer overnight and continued to move a little higher as the European session progressed. Initial optimism was facilitated by reports that the US is reportedly eyeing a potential second round of in-person talks with Iran as the blockade takes hold, according to CNN. AP reported that the US and Iran could be headed toward a second round of talks, which could happen on Thursday. The complex then took another leg higher after Reuters reported that US and Iranian negotiation teams are to return to Islamabad for peace talks later this week. Markets will now await any official confirmation on if/when talks begin.
  • USTs are higher by 4 ticks, and currently trade within a 111-07+ to 111-14+ range. Today’s action is encapsulated by the above, but later on, the domestic docket is packed with Fed speak and US data. In brief, weekly ADP employment stats (prev. +26k average per week over the four-week window), US PPI (expected to rise 1.2% M/M vs prev. 0.7%) and NFIB Business Optimism Index are all expected. On Fed speak, Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 Voter, Dovish; no text expected), Barr (Voter, Neutral; text expected), Paulson (2026 Voter, Dovish; no text expected), Collins (2028 Voter, Neutral) and Barkin (2027 Voter, Neutral) are all to provide comments later.
  • Bunds and Gilts also follow the above, extending gains of around 40 ticks and 45 ticks, respectively. UK paper has not really had much domestic newsflow, aside from the region’s BRC Retail Sales metric, which rose 3.1% (exp. 0.9% prev. 0.7%). The firm pointed towards warmer weather/Easter holidays boosting momentum, but highlighted risks surrounding the Middle East war, which is “is weighing heavily on both retailer and consumer confidence”. For Germany specifically, a large jump in Wholesale Prices in March weighed on Bunds at a time, though ultimately proved fleeting. Much of the jump in prices was associated with rises in “energy products and raw materials”, amid the Iranian conflict.
Context

This sentiment is notable as traders are also keenly awaiting upcoming US economic data and Fed commentary, which could pivot market expectations on rates. Overall, the stability in fixed income may reflect a cautious approach to risk in light of the Middle East tensions and domestic economic developments.

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