Midterm preview: Where things stand eight months ahead of elections

PREVIEW:

Midterm elections mark roughly the midpoint of the US President's four-year term, where seats within the Senate and House of Representatives are up for election. 35/100 Senate seats are up for election, while all 435 seats in the House are up for election. In the Senate, power is held by Republicans with a majority of 53 seats, versus the 45 seats held by Democrats and 2 seats held by Independents. 

Toss-up Senate seats include Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan, with Republicans aiming to retain the former two state seats while Democrats will want to keep the latter two. Nate Silver has Democrats with an edge in Maine (D +12.9), Georgia (D +2), and North Carolina (D +2.7), which, if true, would see North Carolina and Maine flip Blue from Red. However, it would still mean the Republicans would edge the Senate in a 51 to 49 vote split, assuming all other seats remain as they currently are. Overall, Polymarket, a betting market, assigns a Republican win in the Senate at a 57% chance. 

For the House, Republicans have control with a majority of 218 seats, while Democrats have 214, with the remaining 3 seats vacant. Nate Silver has Democrats most likely retaking the House, with betting markets of a similar mind, favouring Democrats winning the House with an 84% chance. 

Midterm elections are often interpreted as a referendum on the sitting president’s performance; as such, worsening approval ratings for Trump would typically be expected to translate into stronger performance for the Democrats. A recent WaPo/ABC/Ipsos poll found Trump's approval rating stood at 39% positive, 60% negative, including 47% who say they strongly disapprove. On key issues, inflation, tariffs, relations with other countries, the economy, immigration, the disapproval ratings on Trump's handling were higher on all subjects, with spreads the largest on inflation, tariffs, and US relations with other countries. Note, the poll was released on 22nd February, so was prior to the Middle Eastern conflict.

RCP Averages on Trump's approval for key issues (vs. disapproval rating): Economy 39.8% (vs. 56.5% who disapprove -16.7), Foreign Policy 39.1 (vs. 54.1 -15.0), Immigration 43.5 (vs. 53.5 -10.0), Inflation 34.8 (vs. 61.9 -27.1), Crime 45.8 (vs. 50.2 -4.4), Russia/Ukraine 37.4 (vs. 55.6 -18.2). 

Given existing concerns for lower-income households on the economy and inflation, the recent jump in oil prices after the US & Israel strike on Iran is likely to be a main sticking point in the 2026 midterms, particularly if the conflict and move higher in energy prices drag on. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted ahead of the strikes showed 27% approval for the strikes, with 56% viewing Trump as too willing to use military force.

Concerning Governors, there are 36 state Governorships up for grabs, split evenly between Republicans and Democrats, with three territories also to become available.

President Trump Job Approval RCP Poll Average 

Black = Approve, Red = Disapprove

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• Breakdown approval (vs. disapproval difference): RCP Average, 43.5% (–11.3), Reuters/Ipsos, 38 (–22), CBS News, 41 (–18), Trafalgar Group, 51 (+3), Rasmussen Reports, 45 (–8), Economist/YouGov, 42 (–15), Emerson, 43 (–12), Morning Consult, 45 (–8), RMG Research, 45 (–9), CNN, 39 (–22), InsiderAdvantage, 50 (+4), Big Data Poll, 42 (–13), Quantus Insights, 43 (–13), Yahoo News, 42 (–14).

2026 Generic Congressional Vote RCP Poll Average

​Blue = Democrats

Red = Republicans

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• Breakdown (Dems): RCP Average, 47.5 (+4.6 higher than Republicans), Economist/YouGov, 45 (+4), Emerson, 50 (+8), Morning Consult, 48 (+4), Reuters/Ipsos, 40 (+2), Big Data Poll, 50 (+9), Quantus Insights, 48 (+6), Yahoo News, 44 (+3), RMG Research, 45 (–2), Cygnal, 48 (+4), PPP, 48 (+7), Harvard-Harris, 52 (+4), I&I/TIPP, 45 (+3), Marquette, 52 (+7), Fox News, 52 (+6).