Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged in 2026 (prev. forecasted cuts in Sep and Dec), expects 25bps of rate cuts each in Jan'27 and Mar'27

Morgan Stanley's latest forecast suggests a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory, indicating that rates may remain unchanged through 2026, contrasting with earlier expectations for cuts this year. This adjustment implies a more cautious outlook on economic growth, which could influence market sentiment and USD dynamics moving forward, as well as reshape expectations for bond markets and risk appetite.