Newsquawk Daily Bond Auction Preview - 1st September 2026

Analysis:

• Currently, the German 5yr yield is at 3.06% and at levels not seen since Oct'08.
• Global bond yields have risen in recent days, initially driven by Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole. ING highlights the upward pressure on real yields, driven by issuance pressure and positive productivity growth from AI.
• Further downside in recent trade has been driven by JGBs, with its 10yr yield touching 3%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent has been intervening in Japanese markets, stating overnight that the BoJ should hike rates.
• Focused on the Eurozone, German headline inflation ticked higher to 2.9% Y/Y from 2.8%; however, slightly cooler than expectations. This comes ahead of the broader EZ figure at 10:00BST, expected to tick up to 3.3% from 2.9%. ING note that inflation rates are steady with the 5Y5Y forward inflation swap at 2.15%, indicating a high degree of confidence. However, risks do remain to the upside, with upside inflation surprises possibly pushing rates higher while second-round effects remain a material risk.

Recent History:

• 2.90% 2031: b/c 1.48x, average yield 2.89%, retention 24.1%

Results due shortly after the 10:30BST bidding deadline