Newsquawk Daily US Equity Opening News - Strong GS earnings; Disappointing prelim IBM figures

DAY AHEAD:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.3%, NQ +1.2%, YM -0.2%, RUT +1.2%.
US indices have seen gains in recent trade on a much cooler-than-expected CPI print, and will temper some of the hawkish bets recently seen, and heard. As a reminder, just yesterday Governor Waller said that another firm core inflation reading this week would see him consider a near-term rate hike, and if it was hot he would take it as a signal, not noise, adding that he would need to see several months of softer core inflation before becoming confident that price pressures were moving back towards target.
BROKER MOVES: CSX upgraded at Susquehanna; AAPL downgraded at KeyBanc. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: IBM, GS, WFC, JPM, HCA, TSEM, CLSK, NBIS, AAPL. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: For the full list, click here.
EVENTS: Testimony from Fed Chair Warsh. US President Trump will meet with Iraq’s PM in Washington. UK Chancellor Reeves will deliver a speech at the Mansion House afterhours.
CENTRAL BANKS: Fed Chair Warsh testifies to the House; Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, hawkish), Barr (voter, neutral), Cook (voter, neutral) and Bowman (voter, dovish) all speak.
ENERGY: API weekly energy inventories due after hours. US Energy Secretary Wright will deliver remarks after the US close.

US EQUITY NEWS:

FINANCIALS:

Wells Fargo (WFC) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 2.00 (exp. 1.72), Revenue 22.6bln (exp. 21.87bln); planning a dividend increase of 11% to 0.50/shr. Key Metrics: NII 12.3bln (exp. 12.4bln), Net Income 6.41bln (exp. 5.33bln), Credit loss provision 914mln (prev. 1.005bn). Commentary: Saw broad-based revenue growth, with operating segments generating strong revenue growth. In consumer businesses, Consumer Banking and Lending revenue grew 6% and Wealth and Investment Management revenue +13% Y/Y. Also had strong growth in commercial businesses with Commercial Banking revenue up 6% and Corporate and Investment Banking revenue +16% Y/Y. Affirmed FY guide.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 7.70 (exp. 5.58), Revenue 57.3bln (exp. 51.06bln), Net Income 21.2bln (exp. 16.2bln). Key Metrics: FICC Sales & Trading Revenue 6.05bln (exp. 6.29bln), Equities Sales & Trading Revenue 6.03bln (exp. 3.98bln), Provision for Credit Losses 2.5bln (prev. 2.5bln Q/Q), Managed NII 25.62bln, (exp. 25.64bln), Net charge-offs 2.37bln (exp. 2.62bln). Guidance: Raises FY26 NII 105.5bln (prev. 103bln). CEO Dimon: The US economy has demonstrated notable resiliency this year, with stronger business investment and hiring. This strength is being supported by several tailwinds, including AI-driven capital investment, fiscal stimulus and the benefits of more efficient regulation. Several risks are shifting below the surface like tectonic plates, including geopolitical tensions and wars, sticky inflation, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices.
Bank of America (BAC) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 1.21 (exp. 1.13), Revenue 31.6bln (exp. 30.73bln). Key Metrics: NII 16bln, Consumer banking revenue 11.3bln, Provision for credit losses 1.4bln, Net income 9.1bln. FICC revenue 3.54bln (exp. 3.53bln), Equities revenue 3.62bln (exp. 2.69bln). Commentary: Near-term, pipelines remain strong, and commercial borrowing has picked up. Against healthy economic backdrop, resilient consumers and businesses are turning to Bank of America to spend, borrow and invest.
Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 20.98 (exp. 14.47), Revenue 20.34bln (exp. 16.20bln); Raises quarterly dividend to 5/shr in Q3 (prev. 4.50). Key Metrics: Provision for credit losses 102mln (exp. 204.9mln), NII 3.95bln, FICC sales & trading revenue 4.59bln (exp. 3.76bln), Equities sales & trading revenue 7.42bln (exp. 5.02bln). Commentary: Q2 platform solutions revenue drop mainly due to net markdowns in net revenues related to Apple card loan portfolio. Q2 provisions for credit losses primarily reflected impairments related to wholesale loans. Operating expenses were significantly higher Y/Y, primarily reflecting significantly higher compensation and benefits expenses.
Citigroup (C) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 3.15 (exp. 2.74), Revenue 24.8bln (exp. 23.7bln). Key Metrics: FICC sales & trading revenue 4.71bln (exp. 4.56bln), Equities sales and trading revenue 2.03bln (exp. 1.90bln), Provision for credit losses 2.5bln, reflecting 2.4bln of net credit losses, Net credit losses +8% Y/Y, driven by increases in Banking and Legacy Franchises.
BlackRock (BLK) - A BlackRock private credit fund is in talks to extend the maturity of a USD 17mln loan to Indian e-commerce brand aggregator Goat Brand Labs to September 2028 from December 2027, with BlackRock also asked to forgo a 6% annual cash coupon, Bloomberg reports. The development adds to a series of challenges for BlackRock’s Asian private credit strategy, including a departed Australasia head, a troubled China loan and a missed fundraising target.

TECH:

IBM (IBM) Prelim Q2 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.27 (exp. 3.02), Revenue 17.2bln (exp. 17.9bln), Non-GAAP gross profit margin 59.4%, -0.7%. Commentary: When discussed expectations in April, noted would be wrapping on the launch of z17 in Q2. Given this was the strongest start to a mainframe program in history, expected Infrastructure revenue to decline low-single digits for the year, beginning this quarter. What played out was worse than our expectations, driven by a shortfall in our Z performance and the associated software stack, primarily in Transaction Processing.In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases. This dynamic impacted client buying patterns. While we anticipated some supply chain related impact in our expectations, we did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritisation. Remain on track to deliver the first large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. Undertaking new initiatives and accelerating others, all to improve our results going forward.
Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Is in early-stage discussions with banks about a potential US ADR offering, motivated in part by SK Hynix’s (SKHY) record-breaking USD 26.5bln US listing last week, according to Bloomberg. No decision has been made and the discussions remain at a review stage rather than a formal mandate.
Nvidia (NVDA) - Has more than halved the number of Asian customers authorised to buy its AI chips after introducing a stricter “white list” compliance process in Singapore, Malaysia and Japan, FT reports. The tightened vetting, conducted with Department of Commerce oversight, includes data centre visits and end-user interviews, and primarily affects neocloud providers. The crackdown follows a March indictment alleging a USD 2.5bln chip smuggling scheme through a Southeast Asian pass-through entity.
Data Centres - Data centre builders including Netrality, DataBank, Edged and EdgeCore Digital Infrastructure are working with bankers to sell majority equity stakes this summer, the WSJ reports. The largest potential deal is a majority stake in DataBank, currently owned by a DigitalBridge-led consortium, which could reach USD 25bln. KKR’s newly formed Helix Digital Infrastructure is among those evaluating assets.
OpenAI, xAI (SPCX) - OpenAI filed a request seeking over USD 1mln in legal expenses from xAI after a San Francisco federal judge twice dismissed xAI’s trade secret suit over alleged employee poaching, Bloomberg reports.
SoftBank (SFTBY) - Founder Masayoshi Son said nuclear fusion will become the primary power source for AI data centres within 15 years, predicting global data centre capacity needs of 3 terawatts by 2040. Son dismissed concerns about AI investment returns as “an incredibly foolish question”, and said natgas will bridge the gap until fusion becomes viable.
Apple (AAPL) - While the global smartphone market overall fell 6.7% Y/Y in Q2, Huawei and Apple each grew China smartphone shipments approximately 20% Y/Y, the only major vendors to record growth as the overall Chinese market fell 4.3% Y/Y, according to IDC data. Memory costs are up nearly 300% Y/Y, and account for over 65% of bill of materials at the low end, forcing Android (GOOG) vendors to raise prices and polarising the market toward premium devices.
SK Hynix (SKHY) - Overnight, shares pared an early drop of as much as 9% before printing gains in excess of 4% in Seoul, after a dramatic intraday reversal that would have pushed its two-day loss beyond 20% had the decline held.
Ericsson (ERIC) Q2 2026 (SEK): Revenue 52.7bln (exp. 53.9bln), EBIT 5.92bln (exp. 5.96bln), Adj. EBITA 6.88bln (exp. 6.82bln), Net income 4.08bln (exp. 4.43bln). Guidance: Q3 adj. gross margin 48-50%, with some Networks margin pressure expected from higher network rollout volumes. Outgoing CEO Ekholm cited increased macro and geopolitical uncertainty in the outlook.
CleanSpark (CLSK) - Agrees to a USD 6.6bln 20-year data centre lease, Bloomberg reports.
Nebius (NBIS) - Said to be selling USD 1bln worth of AI capacity to Reflection, Bloomberg reports.
Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) - Plans to invest about USD 3bln to expand its advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity in Japan, backed by about USD 1bln in grants from the Japanese government. Co. also updated its 2028 financial targets, forecasting USD 3.6bln in revenue.

HEALTHCARE:

HCA Healthcare (HCA) - Sees Q2 EPS USD 7.62 (exp. 7.47), Revenue 20.23bln (exp. 19.38bln); Lowers FY26 EPS view to USD 28.70-30.50 (prev. 29.10-31.50, exp. 30.19) and adj. EBITDA view to USD 15.4-16.1bln (prev. 15.55-16.45bln). Narrows FY26 revenue view to USD 77-79.5bln (prev. 76.5-80bln, exp. 78.58bln).
Psychedelic Drug Trials - The Department of Veterans Affairs and Department of Health and Human Services signed an MOU to expand cooperation on psychedelic drug trials. The agreement supports increased clinical-trial participation and data sharing with the FDA.
Evotec (EVO) - H1 (EUR): Revenue 300.1mln (exp. 365.4mln); sees FY sales 570-610mln (exp. 730.2mln, prev. 595-635mln).
AstraZeneca (AZN) - Entered an exclusive licence agreement with Dizal Pharmaceutical for worldwide development and commercialisation rights to Zegfrovy, an oral irreversible EGFR inhibitor for lung cancer; AZ will pay USD 600mln upfront, with additional payments of up to USD 900mln.

COMMUNICATIONS:

Social Media - The UK government is set to unveil proposals as soon as Wednesday to turn autoplay features off by default for 16 and 17 year-old social media users and make overnight curfews standard for that age group, according to Politico. The measures accompany the existing social media ban for under-16s announced last month.
Shutterstock (SSTK) - CEO Paul Hennessy stepped down with immediate effect, with CFO Rik Powell named interim CEO while retaining his CFO role. Hennessy will remain in a non-executive advisory capacity through 7th August. The board is also planning to engage a strategic adviser to assist with the company’s go-forward strategy.
Google (GOOG) - DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis proposed a US-supervised, industry-funded global AI watchdog to test frontier models before release and coordinate slowdowns if risks rise, Axios reports.

CONSUMER STAPLES:

Brown-Forman (BF.B) - CEO Lawson Whiting, who has led the Co. since 2019, is retiring; the board is launching a search for a successor from both internal and external candidates, WSJ reports. Whiting will remain in the role until a replacement is appointed.

INDUSTRIALS:

Hapag-Lloyd (HPGLY) - Raised FY EBITDA view to USD 2.7-3.7bln (prev. 1.1-3.1bln), citing strong demand and freight rates. Lifted FY EBIT guidance to USD 100mln-1.1bln, while warning of uncertainty from rate volatility and geopolitical challenges.
Airbus (EADSY), Boeing (BA) - Riyadh Air is finalising orders for approximately six Airbus SE A350-1000 widebody jets and around 30 Boeing aircraft, according to Bloomberg citing sources. An announcement is planned at the Farnborough International Airshow next week.
Trex (TREX) - Q2 prelim. (USD): Adj. EBITDA 112mln, Revenue 418mln (exp. 397.49mln, prev. 388-403mln). Commentary: CFO said Q2 sales are expected to exceed prior guidance, driven by strong sell-through across channels and products. It raised FY26 guidance due to a strong start to the year. Trex also announced a realignment of its North American distribution network, with Specialty Building Products becoming its sole national distributor for decking and railing products, while regional distribution will expand through WS Building Materials, Coastal Forest Products and BlueLinx. Trex will transition away from Boise Cascade and said it will work with partners to ensure uninterrupted product availability during the shift. Guidance: Raised FY26; revenue 1.215-1.25bln (exp. 1.21bln, prev. 1.185-1.23bln), Adj. EBITDA 335-350mln (prev. 315-340mln), and maintained capex guidance at 100-120mln.
Fastenal (FAST) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 0.33 (exp. 0.33), Revenue 2.39bln (exp. 2.34bln)

ENERGY:

China Crude Imports - China’s crude oil imports fell 41% Y/Y to 29.27mln tons in June, the smallest volume in almost a decade, as Hormuz disruptions and weak domestic demand reduced the call on regional suppliers, according to customs data. Separately, several Chinese refiners will receive no Saudi term crude allocations for August, with at least two requesting no cargoes and others receiving no provisional allocation, Bloomberg said. Saudi Arabia also recently cut its flagship grade to a discount for Asian sales for the first time since 2020, though buyers say spot alternatives still remain cheaper.
BP (BP) - Expects Q2 upstream production to fall, in line with previous guidance, partly due to Middle East disruption; Oil trading results are expected to be slightly higher vs Q1, when BP reported exceptionally strong trading. Sees Q2 upstream production of 2,170-2,220mboepd (prev. 2,339mboepd Q/Q), with the decline attributed to seasonal maintenance in the Gulf of America and Middle East disruption; gas and low carbon energy is guided between 750-770mboepd (prev. 798mboepd); oil production between 1,420-1,450mboepd (prev. 1,541mboepd). Net debt expected at USD 22-23bln (prev. 25.3bln Q/Q).

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY:

Chipotle (CMG) - Will open its first Mexican restaurant in San Pedro Garza Garcia, Nuevo Leon, on 16th July. Operated with Alsea, it is the first site under their April 2025 development agreement. Further Nuevo Leon openings are planned this year, followed by expansion into Mexico City in 2027.
Watches of Switzerland (WOSGF) FY26 (GBP): Revenue 1.83bln (exp. 1.78bln), Adj. EBIT 155mln (exp. 148.4mln), Operating profit 170mln (prev. 150mln Y/Y); affirmed FY27 outlook; CEO cited an encouraging start to the year, underpinning confidence in another year of strong revenue growth.

REAL ESTATE:

CoStar (CSGP) - Appointed Robin Rossmann as CFO, effective 31st July. Rossmann will succeed Christian Lown, who is leaving for an opportunity outside the company’s industry.

GEOPOLITICS:

US - US CENTCOM said the US conducted a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran, hitting targets in Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Bandar Kangan, with explosions also reported on Qeshm Island and Kish Island. The US Navy-led JMIC announced enforcement of a naval blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas, applying to all vessel traffic regardless of flag, while not impeding neutral transit through the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian destinations. Axios reported the US military has plans for several additional days of strikes on Iran’s southern coastline aimed at degrading the IRGC’s ability to attack shipping.
President Trump - Trump described the conflict as “going well and fast”, and said that the MoU was built to test Iran, which he said failed to honour it. Trump said the US would hit “Pickaxe Mountain” soon, describing it as a good potential target, and reiterated that Iran has no functioning air force, navy or military.
Iran - Iran’s IRGC struck US military facilities at Bahrain’s Juffair base and in Kuwait with drones, targeted a US vessel with cruise missiles, and a US military base in Jordan was also reported hit. Iranian Kurdish opposition sites east of Erbil were also struck. Iran’s Foreign Minister said Iran will remain guardian of the Strait of Hormuz and suggested a transit fee below Trump’s proposed 20%, stating Iran “will be fair.”
Hormuz - Six US-sanctioned Iranian supertankers, with a combined capacity of approximately 12mln barrels, transited the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman in the past week with transponders switched off, Bloomberg reports citing ship-tracking data. The movements occurred after the US revoked Iran’s oil sales waiver on 7th July, and ahead of Washington announcing a reimposition of an Iranian port blockade.

TRADE:

China Trade Data - China’s June exports rose 27% Y/Y (exp. 19%), the strongest in four months, while imports surged 36% Y/Y (exp. 24%), the fastest in five years, leaving a trade surplus of USD 125.6bln (exp. 121bln), the second-largest on record. The outperformance was driven by global AI infrastructure demand and soaring chip prices, with South Korea’s exports to China rising 92% Y/Y, the fastest since 2010.
Australia-China - Australian Treasurer Chalmers issued an interim direction blocking three China-linked shareholders of rare earths miner Northern Minerals from voting or exercising other shareholder rights after they defied earlier orders to sell their stock.

MACRO:

US Politics - South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, the late Senator Lindsey Graham’s sister, to complete his Senate term expiring in January. Nordone, a political novice endorsed by President Trump and Senator Tim Scott, was sworn in on Tuesday and is widely regarded as a placeholder ahead of a Republican primary scheduled for 11th August.
UK Chancellor - UK Chancellor Reeves will likely defend fiscal rules and warn that growth plans require financial-market credibility in her final Mansion House speech as chancellor; she will outline bank ring-fencing reforms and an AI strategy for financial services. She is expected to be replaced as Chancellor in incoming PM Andy Burnham’s new cabinet line-up; according to a Bloomberg poll, Ed Miliband was viewed as the least market-friendly potential UK chancellor, receiving 5% support in a survey of 187 market participants (conducted from 2-13th July), while Wes Streeting led with 34%, ahead of John Healey.
Japan - Japan’s 20yr JGB auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.52x (prev. 2.97x), approaching April’s seven-year high, with the tail narrowing to a record-matching 0.00, and the 20yr yield falling sharply in wake of the sale. Demand was supported by FinMin Katayama’s comments on GPIF domestic investment, and her suggestion of adding government bonds to the tax-free NISA programme, analysts said. SocGen estimates that Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund could buy up to JPY 12.3tln of additional government bonds within its current allocation limits, assuming domestic bond holdings rise to 31% from 26.9% in March.
KRW - South Korea plans to ease FX rules in H2 to expand global use of the KRW, Bloomberg reports. Measures include incentives for KRW-settled trade, wider foreign access to KRW investments, relaxed borrowing rules, and expanded trade finance. The government also plans stronger market monitoring and deeper offshore access, addressing restrictions cited by MSCI.
NZ - RBNZ Chief Economist Conway warned that inflation may not slow as quickly as forecast, citing renewed Middle East fighting as an upside risk to the bank’s Q3 inflation projection of 3.3%. Conway said the RBNZ will respond if inflation pressures prove more persistent than expected. Elsewhere, NZ business confidence recovered in Q2, with a net 12% of firms expecting economic improvement over the next 12 months (prev. 1% in Q1), according to the NZIER; however, NZIER warned the renewed Middle East fighting is likely to unwind some of the recovery. A net 54% of firms saw higher costs in Q2, and expect further increases in Q3, with the modest Q2 performance suggesting a small GDP contraction, analysts said.
UK Retail Sales - The BRC retail sales monitor rose 1.7% Y/Y in June (exp. 2.9%); the monthly gauge was up for a second straight month. Meanwhile, UK card spending rose 1.9% Y/Y, the fastest in 11 months, according to Barclays data, boosted by the World Cup and warm weather driving spending on pubs, fans, cold drinks and summer clothing; still, Barclays said the economy likely slowed through mid-2026, with only a modest pick-up expected in H2.