Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 1st October 2026

• A US official said Secretary of State Rubio demanded on Monday that Iran's delegation to the UN General Assembly immediately leave the country after negotiations stalled, according to Axios.
• The US has reportedly told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a possible export ban, with the US pushing for the release of 120mln barrels of diesel in the next six months, according to sources.
• US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming after Google releases Gemini 4 Argon.
• DXY reaches levels not seen since May 2025; CHF supported by safe-haven demand.
• Fixed income benchmarks under pressure but off worst amid higher energy prices (Brent +2.6%); OATs on high alert amid the draft budget announcement.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims (Sep/26), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include BoE's Mann & Pill, ECB’s Lagarde & Schnabel, Fed’s Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook, Williams & Logan, BoC's Rogers. Earnings from Accenture, McCormick & Nike.

As of 10:55BST / 05:55EDT

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.0%) have come under significant pressure to start the final quarter of 2026. Energy prices continue to be the main driver (Brent +1.7%), while the downside in fixed income is also not helping sentiment.
• Sectors highlight the negative bias, with all sectors entirely in the red. Banks are the clear laggard, with Basic Resources and Consumer Products & Services following suit.
• US equity futures are mixed, with the tech-heavy NQ outperforming. Focus for Thursday will be on the flurry of Fed speakers, while the Jobs Report is to be released tomorrow.
• Initially, upbeat sentiment was seen across the Tech space after Micron delivered strong quarterly results after-hours, with upbeat guidance underscoring the robust AI-driven memory demand, although expected margin compression, due to increased worker pay, and higher operating expenses limited the reaction in shares (-0.7% pre-market).
• Micron Technology Inc. (MU) Q4 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 33.42 (exp. 31.49), Revenue 54.229bln (exp. 50.92bln). Q1 Guidance: Adj. EPS 38.15 (exp. 35.40), revenue 61.5bln (exp. 57.024bln), gross margin 85.95% (exp. 87%).
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

FX

• Snapshot: A dire situation, with global yields at multi-decade highs, lifting the USD to levels not seen since May 2025. The CHF benefits post-CPI and haven-demand, whilst the JPY underperformed post-Tankan survey.
• DXY is stronger this morning, and currently trades at the top end of a 101.45-101.84 range; the peak for the day has surpassed the 24 June high (101.80), and now trades at levels not seen since May 2025. The strength today is facilitated by stronger energy prices, with yields also moving higher in tandem. There is no one clear driver for the energy move this morning, but perhaps as traders digest the lack of progress between US-Iran; A US official said Secretary of State Rubio demanded that Iran’s UN delegation immediately leave the US after negotiations stalled.
• EUR is weaker vs USD this morning, and fell below the 1.13 mark for the first time since May 2025. The single currency has been swept away by the broader USD strength, but also has its own domestic issues to worry about, namely in France. PM Lecornu reportedly aims for EUR 43bln in new savings in the budget, with tax changes likely to make up the rest of the expected EUR 54bln savings plan that was previously touted. Most pertinently is that the deficit is seen falling to 5% of GDP by 2027, well above the EU’s deficit-to-GDP ceiling of 3%. This raises three key concerns: a) Will the EU impose fines/sanctions, b) potential use of Article 49.3 – raising political uncertainty, c) French sovereign debt credit rating downgrades.
• JPY is the clear underperformer this morning, following a weaker-than-expected Tankan report. Mizuho previously noted that a strong reading could boost the odds of an October rate hike at the BoJ; today’s weak reading has likely kicked the can down the road, at least for now. Also for the JPY was the release of the BoJ SOO, which “appears to have disappointed some market participants who were looking for a stronger signal that the BoJ were open to another hike as soon as next month”, MUFG says.

FIXED INCOME

• Despite a relatively steady APAC-European handover for fixed income, marked pressure has been seen this morning on what appears to be a bit of a self-fulfilling narrative, as concerns over yield upside see major levels breached, in-turn spurring further upside.
• The main point has been the French draft budget and reporting around that. In short, PM Lecornu’s government is looking to save around EUR 43bln from their spending, with various tax-related adjustments also being reported with a total figure of over EUR 50bln still in play as things stand. Nonetheless, this leaves them on track to have a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 5%, well above the EU’s EDP 3% threshold. As such, sovereign updates will be keenly watched in the run up to the 2027 Presidential election.
• Bunds also pressured, in-fitting with peers, awaiting updates from the European Commission on the regional aspects of the bloc’s budget, updates that could weigh on EGBs further. For Germany, Bild reports that Chancellor Merz has blocked vice-Chancellor/Finance Minister Klingbeil’s sugar tax proposal, which would have raised EUR 1.2bln vs the EUR 0.4bln currently planned. Bunds lower by 20 ticks at the time of writing, lower by as much as 60 early doors, but has since been able to find a bit of a floor.
• Despite a lack of fresh fundamental news, the UK 30yr yield has eclipsed the 6% mark. A breach that may well have helped drive some of the self-fulfilling action early on ahead of the broader pressure and French updates.
• USTs, in-line directionally with the above, but with somewhat smaller magnitudes into an afternoon packed with speakers and data. Currently, just above the 104-00 handle, after minting a 103-28+ contract low this morning.
• France sells EUR 11.999bln vs Exp. 10-12bln 3.70% 2036, 3.80% 2037, 1.25% 2038, 2.00% 2048 OAT.
• Spain sells EUR 5.061bln vs Exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 1.45% 2029, 3.40% 2036, 2.90% 2046 Bono.

COMMODITIES

• WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures have reversed overnight losses and are sharply firmer as the European morning progresses, with the complex supported by the continued lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations (see below for details) and despite any obvious news flow to explain the gains. WTI has rallied from a USD 88.79/bbl low to a USD 92.90/bbl high, while Brent has surged from USD 96.55/bbl to briefly top USD 100/bbl, printing a USD 100.79/bbl high. There was also focus on diesel after the US reportedly told France and Germany to release emergency stocks or face a possible US export ban.
• Dutch TTF is firmer alongside the broader energy complex, with ongoing Middle Eastern uncertainty keeping supply risks on traders’ minds. Syria also reported that three power plants remain out of service following a gas pipeline explosion. TTF has risen from a EUR 71.22/MWh low to a EUR 74.25/MWh high.
• Precious metals are flat/mixed as the rise in crude pushes global yields higher, limiting the benefit from lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Spot gold is little changed overall in a USD 4,139/oz low to a USD 4,193/oz high, while spot silver is modestly firmer within a USD 59.97-61.43/oz range.
• Base metals are softer, with the complex pressured by higher energy prices and yields, while mainland China remains closed for the National Day holiday. 3M LME copper is down almost 1.5% within a USD 14,231-14,491/t range, while COMEX copper is similarly lower.
• In geopolitics, Trump said developments regarding Iran will happen “very soon” and that the war could end soon, while a White House official said a deal remains possible. However, negotiations have stalled, with US Secretary of State Rubio reportedly demanding Iran’s UN delegation leave the US, while Iranian officials said they received Washington’s response to their latest proposal without disclosing its contents. Further support comes from reports that the Israeli Security Cabinet will discuss the situation “on all fronts” on Sunday following yesterday’s Flydubai incident, which was a suspected terrorist plot, with Israel not ruling out Iran’s involvement.
• The US has reportedly told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a possible export ban, according to sources. The source added that the US wants the EU to release 120mln barrels of diesel in the next six months. Following this, reports suggested that the EU is seeking to form a unified position on releasing diesel reserves.
• Chinese refiners reportedly suspend fuel product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau, according to Reuters.
• US Interior Secretary Burgum said a European refined fuel stockpile release could lower prices and that European voluntary release of diesel stockpiles would help.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said they will have some announcements on diesel and will hear announcements from Europe about new diesel supplies.
• US President Trump said a diesel export ban is something they talk about daily, but could have a negative impact on gasoline, which would go up.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• US President Trump announced a deal for nuclear power plants to be funded by South Korea, as part of South Korea's investment pledge that got auto tariffs reduced from 25% to 15%.
• South Korea's Industry Minister said he lodged strong objections with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick over his announcement on the Alaska LNG project.
• South Korea Industry Minister said the US is likely to maintain a tariff rate on South Korea at 15%, according to Yonhap.
• Japan plans to send a business delegation to Beijing next March, looking for talks with Chinese President Xi's leadership, Kyodo reported citing sources.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• French PM Lecornu reportedly aims for EUR 43bln in new savings in the budget, according to BFM TV. The government intends to reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP by 2027, while forecasting higher revenues from VAT and income tax, and lower revenues for businesses, in the 2027 draft budget. The report added that the government wants to put an end to the "windfall" subsidies for renewable energy, extend the tax on sugary drinks and lower the 10% tax allowance ceiling for retirees. Additionally, the government is proposing to freeze family allowances in 2027, hoping this will save EUR 500mln and also seeks a EUR 600mln reduction in spending on the back-to-school allowance.
• European Commission officials will present to member nation's governments examples of "reforms, investments and outputs" and discuss the regional aspects of the bloc's budget, Politico reported citing sources. The new system would give the Commission greater control, sidelining some regions. The plan includes bundling agriculture, regional and migration spending into national cash pots called NRPPs, while payments could be conditional on economic reform milestones.
• The German Chancellery has halted Finance Minister Klingbeil's sugar tax draft bill, which targeted EUR 1.2bln from consumers versus EUR 450mln, Bild reported.
• The UK government is reportedly not planning to overhaul the student loan system in the Autumn budget to cut the cost of living for graduates, the i Paper reported.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

• Swiss CPI (Sep YY) 1% vs. Exp. 1% (Prev. 0.8%).
• Swiss CPI (Sep MM) 0% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.4%).
• European S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) 52.9 vs. Exp. 52.7 (Prev. 52.7).
• German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) 53.9 vs. Exp. 53.8 (Prev. 54.3).
• French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) 50.6 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 51.1).
• Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.4 vs. Exp. 50 (Prev. 49.6).
• Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 51 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 49.5).
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) 51.9 vs Exp. 52 (prev. 51.7).
• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (Sep MM) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.2%).
• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (Sep YY) 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.6%).

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) said inflation is still too high and is around a 3% rate, while he added that new data didn't change that story and that the longer the economy remains strong, the more he questions how restrictive monetary policy is. Kashkari said he pencilled in one more hike this year and another next year, while he hopes the Fed can bring inflation down with modest action and said the Fed must get inflation back to 2% given how long it's been above target.
• Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) noted a record gap between consumer sentiment vibes and hard data of spending, while he stated that sentiment is a less informative growth indicator.
• BoE Governor Bailey said the AI boom could trigger market shocks, while he added that AI asset prices could see a correction and that AI investment brings sticky risks.
• BoJ Summary of Opinions from the September meeting noted one member said it's appropriate to continue raising rates in accordance with the economy, price and financial developments, while a member said the policy phase has shifted and the BoJ must focus on keeping underlying inflation anchored around 2%. It was also stated that the BoJ must respond flexibly and demonstrate to markets its determination to prevent an inflation overshoot while staying mindful of FX-market effects and that the BoJ must accelerate rate hikes if signs emerge of an inflation overshoot. Furthermore, there was an opinion that the BoJ must raise rates towards the terminal level early so it can react quickly to unexpected economic and price developments, although a member said there is no need to hurry rate hikes, but policy must be steered appropriately as underlying inflation is likely to reach 2% soon.
• ECB has asked the EU to start finding a successor to ECB's Schnabel.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US Challenger Job Cuts (Sep) 43.281k (prev. 52.881k)
• US Senators Hawley (R) and Murphy (D) are planning to introduce AI liability legislation as a bipartisan effort to regulate AI, Axios reported.
• BofA (w/e 26th Sept) Total Card Spending +5.6% Y/Y (prev. +6.9%); notes that after a brief reversal last week, lower-income spending growth again outpaced higher income

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• A US official said Secretary of State Rubio demanded on Monday that Iran's delegation to the UN General Assembly immediately leave the country after negotiations stalled, according to Axios.
• UK PM Burnham said there are strong indications that Iran played a part in what happened over the weekend at the Fairford Air Base incident.
• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi rejected UK PM Burnham's accusations linking Tehran to an alleged security incident involving the Fairford Airbase in the UK, while he stated that "I can confirm Iran's belief that releasing supposed terrorists working for foreign states really says it all".
• Israeli Security Cabinet to discuss situation "on all fronts" on Sunday, Al Hadath reported.

OTHER

• South Korea's President Lee said they will take practical measures to lower military tension with North Korea, while South Korea is to upgrade its missile defence systems, including AI-based command networks and laser interceptors.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin has seen two-way price action throughout the European morning, topping at USD 84.37k before reversing to a low of USD 83.11k and has since bounced to just shy of the USD 84k mark.

• APAC stocks were mixed as the region takes its cue from the similar performance stateside, where participants digested a slew of data, and yields continued to climb despite softer PCE data, while markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong were shut for the National Day holiday.
• ASX 200 underperformed with all sectors in the red and the downside led by weakness in energy, real estate and defensives, while a return to growth in Australian Exports and Imports did little to inspire.
• Nikkei 225 rallied with chip-related stocks boosted following strong earnings from Micron, while participants also reflected on the BoJ Tankan survey, which showed sentiment among Large Manufacturers improved but missed forecasts, and coupled with recent weak activity data, supports the argument for a less aggressive BoJ rate normalisation.
• KOSPI shrugged off the initial weakness and climbed into the green as tech-related momentum began to pick up. Furthermore, US President Trump recently unveiled plans for South Korea to invest USD 200bln in energy projects in the US as part of South Korea's investment pledge that got auto tariffs reduced from 25% to 15%, while South Korean Exports surged.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• RBA Financial Stability Review stated that households and businesses are well placed to weather a slower economy and falling house prices, while it added that even if house prices fell a further 20%, only 5% of mortgages would be in negative equity. Furthermore, less than 1% of borrowers are in negative equity and household balance sheets remain strong, while banks are well-positioned to weather a material deterioration in the housing market.
• China's Finance Minister said they will implement proactive fiscal policy and support achievement of full-year economic goals, while they will boost domestic demand, prevent and resolve debt risks, as well as appropriately accelerate the pace of fiscal spending.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said the government will appropriately control total annual government bond issuance, taking into account both initial and supplementary budgets. On the FX market, Takaichi said the FX market is determined by a number of factors, that economic policy is not aimed at manipulating FX while she also told US President Trump that undervaluation of yen is a problem. Takaichi also added that they expect the consumption tax cut on food will be passed on to sales prices.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

• Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3) 24 vs. Exp. 25 (Prev. 22).
• Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q3) 21 vs. Exp. 22 (Prev. 17).
• Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q3) 35 vs. Exp. 36 (Prev. 37).
• Japanese Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q3) 30 vs. Exp. 30 (Prev. 28).
• Japanese Tankan Small Manufacturers Index (Q3) 14 vs. Exp. 11 (Prev. 9).
• Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) 54.1 vs. Exp. 54.1 (Prev. 54.9).
• Australian Trade Balance (Aug) 0.5B vs. Exp. 2B (Prev. 1.923B).
• Australian Exports (Aug MM) 5.8% (Prev. -3.3%).
• Australian Imports (Aug MM) 3.7% (Prev. -2.5%).
• Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) 49.6 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 52.0).
• South Korean Trade Balance (Sep) 49.85B vs. Exp. 38.2B (Prev. 34.75B).
• South Korean Exports (Sep YY) 83.5% vs. Exp. 61.7% (Prev. 68.7%).