OPEC MOMR (Apr – Does not incorporate UAE leaving): In April, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 1.74mln BPD M/M to average about 33.19mln BPD, according to available secondary sources

• In April, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 1.74mln BPD M/M to average about 33.19mln BPD, according to available secondary sources.

• The demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2026 is revised down by 0.2mln BPD from the previous month’s assessment to 42.7mln BPD, which is about 0.4mln BPD higher than 2025.
• The demand for DoC crude in 2027 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 43.6mln BPD, which is about 0.8mln BPD higher than the 2026 forecast.

• Refining margins dropped in the Northern Hemisphere, pressured by higher feedstock prices and a recovery in European refinery runs and product output.
• In contrast, margins in Singapore increased on the back of lower refinery utilisation rates stemming from limited crude availability.

• The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.

The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report indicates a significant decrease in crude oil production by participating countries, dropping by 1.74 million barrels per day month-on-month. This supply contraction, alongside mixed demand revisions, could bolster prices, particularly if geopolitical tensions mount or if recent refining margin trends affect market confidence. A careful watch on refining margins and demand forecasts will be crucial in assessing the overall impact on the energy markets.