OPEC MOMR (Jul): Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.8mln BPD Y/Y in 2026; global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by about 1.9mln Y/Y BPD

World Oil Demand:

• In 2026, world oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.8mln BPD, Y/Y, reflecting a slight downward revision from last month’s assessment. 
• Overall, oil demand in the OECD is projected to increase by about 40 tb/d in 2026, while non-OECD oil demand is expected to grow by about 0.74mln BPD, Y/Y. 

World Oil Supply:

• Non-DoC liquids production (i.e. liquids production from countries not participating in the DoC) is forecast to expand by about 0.6mln BPD Y/Y in 2026 to average 54.8mln BPD. 
• This is unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main drivers of growth in liquids production are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina.
• In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6mln BPD, to average 55.5mln BPD. This remains unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main drivers of growth in liquids production are expected to be Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina.

Balance of Supply and Demand:

• The demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2026 is revised down by  0.2 mb/d from last month’s assessment to 42.3mln BPD, the same level as in 2025. 
• The demand for DoC crude in 2027 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 43.6mln BPD, which is about  1.2mln BPD above the 2026 forecast.

Other Points:

• Strong demand for prompt-loading cargoes led to tighter physical market conditions, especially across the Atlantic Basin, boosting demand for replacement barrels. 
• In June, expectations of abundant near-term supply, along with money managers selling the equivalent of about 357 mb between early May and 30 June, exerted a significant downward pressure on prices. 
• However, low global oil stocks and expectations for high refinery demand over the summer driving season continued to support the physical crude market.