OPEC MOMR (May): Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.0mln BPD Y/Y in 2026 (prev. 1.2mln BPD in last assessment) and 1.7mln BPD Y/Y in 2027 (prev. 1.5mln BPD)

World Oil Demand

Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.0mln BPD Y/Y in 2026 (prev. 1.2mln BPD in last assessment); The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1mln BPD, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.9mln BPD.
Global oil demand is forecast to grow 1.7mln BPD Y/Y in 2027 (prev. 1.5mln BPD); The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.2mln BPD, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.5mln BPD.

World Oil Supply

2026 Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6mln BPD Y/Y in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
2027 Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6mln BPD, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to increase by about 0.1mln BPDY/Y to average 8.8mln BPD in 2026.
Additional growth of about 0.1mln BPD Y/Y is forecast for 2027, to average about 8.9mln BPD.
In May, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 0.19mln BPD M/M, to average about 33.13mln BPD, according to available secondary sources.

Balance of Supply and Demand

The demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2026 is revised down from the previous month’s assessment by 0.2mln BPD, to 42.5mln BPD, which is about 0.2mln BPD higher than in 2025.
The demand for DoC crude in 2027 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment at 43.5mln BPD, which is about 1.0mln BPD above the 2026 forecast.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary April 2026 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories decreased by 48.4mln BPD M/M to stand at 2,748mln bbls.
Crude stocks increased by 4.2mln bbls, while product stocks decreased by 52.7mln bbls M/M.
OECD commercial crude oil stocks stood at 1,348mln bbls, 2.0mln bbls lower Y/Y.
OECD total product stocks stood at 1,399mln bbls in April. This was 4.9mln bbls lower Y/Y.

Crude and Refined Product Trade

In May, US crude imports remained steady M/M averaging 5.7mln BPD, while crude exports averaged 5.2mln BP, broadly in line with the previous month.
US product exports averaged 7.8mln BPD for the third month in a row.

Europe

In April, OECD Europe crude imports slipped to an average of 7.7mln BPD. Product imports into the region stood at 2.1mln BPD, while product exports moved to the top of the five-year range, averaging 2.6mln BPD amid higher flows to the US.

Japan

In Japan, crude imports fell to 853k BPD in April. Product imports into Japan averaged 679k BPT amid declines in LPG, kerosene and fuel oil, while product exports fell for the third consecutive month to average 291k BPD as all major products slumped.

China

China’s crude oil imports in April fell to an average of 9.4mln BPD amid reduced refinery runs. Product imports dropped to 1.2mln BPD mb/d amid lower LPG and fuel oil inflows. China’s product exports fell to 819 tb/d, following a government effort to limit product exports.

India

In India, crude imports recovered in April to stand close to the five-year range at 4.9 mb/d. Product imports into India continued to decline, averaging 647 tb/d, amid a drop in fuel oil and naphtha. India’s product exports averaged 895 tb/d, with declines registered across all major products.