PREVIEW: Norges Bank Policy Decision on Thursday, 18th June 2026 at 09:00BST/04:00EDT

• Norges Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.25%.
• Inflation remains sticky above the Bank’s inflation target, with core inflation rising to 3.4% in May.
• Markets are pricing in a 14% chance of a hike at this meeting, but focus will lie on the updated MPR and guidance on the future rate path.

OVERVIEW: Policymakers at the Norges Bank are to meet on June 17th-18th, with the latest policy announcement to be given on the 18th. Expectations are for the Bank to stay on hold at 4.25%, however the decision could be a close call.

PREVIOUS MEETING: At its May confab, the Bank hiked rates to 4.25%, with the Committee judging that inflation is too high and has run above target for several years. The Committee also judged that a higher policy rate is needed to return inflation to target within a "reasonable time horizon". In terms of the Bank's outlook, they stated that the outlook did not appear to have changed materially since the March meeting. In her introductory remarks at the hearing to parliament, Governor Bache stated that “our latest policy rate forecast in March implied the potential need for further tightening of monetary policy later this year, but at present we do not foresee a pronounced increase in the policy rate.”

INFLATION STILL REMAINS STICKY FOLLOWING THE HOTTER-THAN-EXPECTED MAY REPORT: May’s inflation data came in hotter-than-expected, with core inflation printing at 3.4% from an expected 3.3% and rising from the prior 3.2%. More importantly, the figure was mildly above the Norges Bank’s own forecast of 3.3%. It would therefore be expected to pull the rate path higher. However, analysts at Danske Bank state that the upside surprise was driven by plane tickets, which is usually disregarded, and import prices driven by ICT equipment that may have been as a result of high global demand for components. As a result, analysts at the bank believe the upside risk to inflation is somewhat lower than in March.

UPDATED MPR: The Bank is also expected to deliver a new set of MPR forecasts. In its March forecasts, the Bank signalled 1-2 rate hikes, with the peak at 4.35% in September. Given the policy rate stands at 4.25% currently, it leaves space for policymakers to hike once more time without needing to shift the MPR. Nordea analysts believe that the rate path is to be slightly shifted higher, followed by communication that they will most likely hike again if developments are more or less in line with their new forecasts and assumptions.

CURRENT MPR VIEW: 4.07% (Q2'26), 4.26% (Q3'26), 4.35% (Q4'26), 3.98% (Q4'27), 3.54% (Q4'28).

ANNOUNCEMENT: The policy decision is to be announced at 09:00BST/04:00EDT, with Governor Bache to deliver a press conference at 10:00BST/05:00EDT. Nordea, SEB and Danske Bank all believe that the Bank is to stay on hold at this meeting. The three banks also see the possibility of another rate hike in the summer. In relation to the Middle East conflict, SEB thinks the Bank will refrain from drawing too many conclusions as implications of the US-Iran deal for both commodity prices and the NOK are uncertain.