PREVIEW: SNB Policy Decision on Thursday, 18th June 2026 at 08:30BST.

• SNB is expected to keep rates on hold at 0.00%, given the high bar for a return to NIRP and stable inflation in May not warranting tightening.
• The Bank will likely reiterate an "increased willingness to intervene in FX", given continued strength in the CHF.
• Overall, the messaging should not be materially different to the baseline, with projections also unlikely to be substantially revised.

OVERVIEW: SNB is set to keep rates on hold at 0.00%, given the Bankʼs high bar for a return to NIRP and stable inflation in May not warranting tightening. A recent Reuters poll corroborates this view, with all 35 economists surveyed seeing steady rates in June, and also for the remainder of the year. Goldman Sachs also shares this view, with analysts seeing rates on hold for the “foreseeable future”. They said the relatively low energy impact on the Swiss economy and a stronger CHF were factors supporting a hold in June. An analyst at Barclays surmises it neatly, writing “we think the overall messaging at the upcoming meeting will not change meaningfully, with no signal of an imminent hike”. Chairman Schlegel will provide remarks at the post-announcement presser at 09:00 BST.

DATA: In May, Swiss Y/Y inflation printed below consensus, but remained unchanged from the previous month at 0.6%. Ex-energy inflation was also unchanged from the prior at 0.3%. With headline inflation at the lower end of the Bankʼs 0-2% target band, the report would not have been alarming for policymakers.

FX: Recent strength in the CHF has been a disinflationary factor for the Swiss economy, counteracting some of the inflationary impulse from elevated energy prices. On a 6-month basis, the Swiss Franc is around 1.2% firmer vs the EUR. Chairman Schlegel recently reiterated the Bankʼs "increased willingness to intervene in FX", remarks that are likely to feature once again at the forthcoming meeting.

PROJECTIONS: Recent commentary from the Chairman suggests the forecasts will not change significantly. Schlegel suggested that medium-term inflationary pressures have “hardly charged”. Nonetheless, participants will be attentive to any significant revision and particularly if there is a downgrade to the inflation view, as it could see a return to deflationary concerns over the medium term. As it stands, the current inflation projections are 0.5% (2026), 0.5% (2027), 0.6% (2028). Summer forecasts from the KOF saw a cut to the region’s 2026 and 2027 GDP view, whilst the 2026 inflation view was lifted; the institute blamed high oil prices stemming from the Iran war for slow growth. Note: The KOF forecast did not account for the latest US-Iran deal, and the recent declines in energy prices. The SNB’s own cut-off point is typically a week before its meeting, so projections are also unlikely to encapsulate the recent geopolitical developments.

PREVIOUS MEETING: In March, the SNB maintained its Policy Rate at 0.00% (as expected) and language around FX. It raised its inflation forecast, citing higher energy prices and suggested such pressures could be more rapid in the coming quarters. The Bank also acknowledged that the strength in the CHF will counteract the rise in energy prices over the medium term..