PRIMER - Today's afterhours Fedspeak includes voters Miran, Jefferson, Barr, Cook

  • 20:00GMT/16:00EDT: Fed’s Cook (voter, neutral; text and Q&A expected) to give a speech on ‘Reflections on Financial Stability’; speaking last month, Cook said the Fed may not be able to counter rising unemployment caused by AI adoption. She said that if AI continues to boost productivity, economic growth could stay strong even as labour market churn raises unemployment, and in such a productivity boom higher unemployment may not signal greater slack.
  • 22:30GMT/18:30EDT: Fed’s Miran (voter, dovish dissenter; text and Q&A expected) to speak on the Fed’s Balance Sheet. Overnight, Miran said he raised his projection for where rates should end the year by 0.5ppts after disappointing inflation data; he said the change was not due to oil or Iran. Miran added that the jobs market has been weak, and the economy can do with extra support.
  • 23:00GMT/19:00EDT: Fed’s Vice Chair Jefferson (voter, dovish) will speak on the outlook; speaking in February (prior to the Iran conflict), Jefferson said he was cautiously optimistic about the US economy and expects disinflation to resume this year as higher tariffs pass through to prices. He said that strong productivity growth could also help bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.
  • 23:10GMT/19:10EDT: Fed’s Barr (voter, neutral; text and Q&A expected) will speak on the economy; this week, Barr said rates may need to stay steady for some time as inflation remains notably above its 2% target. He wants to see evidence that goods and services inflation are sustainably retreating before considering further cuts, provided labour market conditions remain stable.
Context

The scheduled afterhours comments from key Federal Reserve officials reflect a spectrum of views that could influence market sentiment. Cook's remarks on productivity and unemployment signal a complex interplay between growth and labor, while Miran's dovish stance suggests concerns about economic support, particularly given recent inflation data. Overall, their insights may impact expectations for future rate adjustments and add clarity to the Fed's approach amidst evolving economic conditions.

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