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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak: Goolsbee, Barr, Barkin, Paulson, Collins

Today's lineup of Fedspeak presents a blend of dovish sentiments and caution regarding inflation and economic stability, particularly in light of the ongoing Iran conflict.

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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak: Goolsbee, Barr, Barkin, Paulson, Collins

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  • 14:45BST/09:45EDT: Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter, Dovish; no text expected) will speak to APP and Yahoo Finance. Goolsbee is also set to take part in a panel discussion today. Speaking on Monday, Goolsbee said the Iran war oil price surge appears transitory based on futures market pricing, and that economic growth should remain strong as long as the consumer holds up. He cautioned that sustained oil prices of USD 90/bbl+ could spill over into broader prices, and warned against being surprised by a deterioration in consumer sentiment.
  • 17:15BST/12:15EDT: Fed's Barr (Voter, Neutral; text expected) to speak on the rural economic development. Speaking in late March, Barr warned that a prolonged Iran conflict could push longer-term inflation expectations higher, making overall inflation harder to control, and said the Fed should take time to assess conditions before cutting rates further. With inflation around one ppt above target, Barr said the Fed needs to be “especially vigilant.” He also warned that recent regulatory changes had weakened banking system resilience.
  • 18:00BST/13:00EDT: Fed's Barkin (2027 Voter, Neutral; no text expected) to participate in a fireside chat on rural investment. Speaking in late March, Barkin said the Iran war oil shock and AI disruption have deepened economic uncertainty, making it appropriate to hold rates steady. Barkin noted that inflation progress had stalled before the oil price spike, with inflation above target, and rising energy costs could unsettle consumer sentiment.
  • 18:00BST/13:00EDT: Fed's Paulson (2026 Voter, Dovish; no text expected) to discuss rural investment. Speaking in late March, Paulson warned that Iran war commodity shocks risk feeding into inflation expectations more quickly and durably given five years of above-target inflation, adding that both inflation and growth risks have risen.
  • 18:00BST/13:00EDT: Fed's Collins (2028 Voter, Neutral; no text expected) to participate in a fireside chat on rural investment. Speaking in February, before the Iran conflict, Collins said rates were likely to remain on hold “for some time,” citing labour market stability, while noting the need for more evidence that inflation is returning to target.
  • 19:00BST/14:00EDT: Fed Discount Rate Minutes. Analysts are not expecting to see any requests for changes to the discount rate.
Context

The comments from officials like Goolsbee and Paulson highlight concerns over prolonged oil price impacts and consumer sentiment, signaling the Fed's watchfulness on inflation as it navigates growth challenges. This may maintain a cautious posture for rates, influencing market expectations as we assess the interplay between geopolitical developments and domestic economic resilience.

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