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PRIMER - Today's Fedspeak: Goolsbee, Schmid, Barr, Bowman

Today's speeches from several Federal Reserve officials will offer insights into the range of perspectives on monetary policy.

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PRIMER - Today's Fedspeak: Goolsbee, Schmid, Barr, Bowman

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  • 17:00BST/12:00EDT: Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, dovish; text/Q&A tbc) will give opening remarks at the Chicago Fed Economic Mobility Project’s virtual event, on human capital in the time of low real rates. Speaking last week, Goolsbee said he is more concerned about inflation than unemployment, and described the current environment as “fraught but intense” as the Middle East conflict makes the outlook uncertain. He remains fairly optimistic that rates could fall by end-2026, but warned the war complicates plans, and progress toward 2% inflation still needs to be seen before that can happen.
  • 18:10BST/13:10EDT: Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter, hawk; text and Q&A are expected) will speak on monetary policy and the economic outlook. Speaking in early March, Schmid said inflation remains too high, and there is no room for complacency. He said the labour market is in balance, and he supported keeping rates at 3.50-3.75%. Elsewhere, he rejected the view that AI is boosting productivity enough to permit faster growth without inflationary pressure.
  • 20:00BST/15:00EDT: Fed’s Barr (voter; text and Q&A are expected) will virtually speak on stabelcoins at a Federalist Society event. Speaking last week, Barr said it makes sense to hold interest rates steady as Middle East conflict, amongst other factors, complicates efforts to return inflation to 2%. He said tariff effects on inflation could persist beyond this year, and noted that non-housing services inflation and core inflation remain elevated.
  • 22:10BST/17:10EDT: Fed’s Bowman (voter, dove; text and Q&A are expected) will speak to small businesses at CBA Live 2026 banking conference. Speaking last week, Bowman said she had pencilled in three rate cuts before end-2026 to support the labour market, adding that it was too early to judge the war’s longer-term economic impact. 
Context

Goolsbee's dovish remarks may signal a cautious approach toward rate cuts amid geopolitical tensions, while Schmid's hawkish stance emphasizes the persistent inflation concerns, influencing market sentiment and potentially shaping expectations for future rate paths. Overall, these discussions are critical for assessing the Fed’s balance between fostering economic growth and controlling inflation amid uncertainty.

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