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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes Barr; FOMC will release meeting minutes

Importance
Level 1
  • 15:15BST/09:15EDT - Fed’s Barr (voter) will speak on consumer financial health metrics. Speaking last week, Barr said shrinking the balance sheet is the wrong objective, and warned proposals to do so could threaten financial stability. He added that scarce reserves could disrupt payments, create funding-market stress and raise panic risks, and argued that the 2023 bank stresses suggest liquidity requirements should actually rise.
  • 19:00BST/14:00EDT: FOMC meeting minutes from the April 2026 confab will be scrutinised for the scale of support behind dropping the easing bias after April’s hawkish split, with three voters dissenting against retaining it (Kashkari, Hammack, Logan) and non-voter Collins later suggesting she would have supported removal. Markets will watch discussions on inflation risks, labour market resilience and conditions that could push the Fed towards hikes, particularly after Chair Powell said more officials now see a hike as likely as a cut. The statement already shifted inflation language to “elevated”, citing higher global energy prices, while growth and labour market wording stayed broadly unchanged. Since the meeting, energy prices have risen further and markets no longer price cuts this year, instead discounting around a c.60% chance of a year-end hike. The minutes pre-date the latest hot CPI and PPI reports. Traders will also focus on any balance sheet debate, with incoming Chair Warsh favouring lower rates but also tighter balance sheet policy, potentially putting him at odds with a Committee showing limited appetite for near-term easing. Click here for Newsquawk’s full FOMC minutes preview.