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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes: Daly, Barkin, Waller; Fed to enter blackout

Today's Fed speeches from Daly, Barkin, and Waller signal a cautious outlook amidst ongoing inflation pressures driven by the oil shock from the Iran war.

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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes: Daly, Barkin, Waller; Fed to enter blackout

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  • 16:30BST/11:30EDT: Fed’s Daly (2027 voter, dove; no text expected) will speak on policy and the economy. In an interview last week, Daly said the oil shock from the Iran war means inflation will take longer to return to target. She said rates may need to stay on hold, with a cut still possible if the conflict stabilises and oil prices fall, though a rate hike appears less likely.
  • 17:15BST/12:15EDT: Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter, neutral; no text expected) to speak on the economic outlook, repeating remarks he made on 27th of March. In those remarks, Barkin said the war with Iran and the rapid rollout of AI have deepened uncertainty, making it appropriate to keep rates on hold for now. The oil price shock could unsettle consumers, and Barkin noted that inflation progress had stalled even before the latest rise in energy prices.
  • 19:00BST/14:00EDT: Fed’s Waller (voter, dove; text expected) will also speak on the outlook; When Waller spoke on policy last month, he said he had been prepared to call for a rate cut after February job losses, but the oil shock and inflation risks linked to the Iran war changed his view. Waller said a cautious approach is now needed until the conflict’s economic impact becomes clearer.
  • NOTE: The Fed will enter its blackout window on 18th April ahead of its 29th April confab.
Context

Daly and Waller's dovish commentary suggests that while a rate cut could become viable if conditions stabilize, a hike is currently unlikely. With the Fed entering a blackout period soon, traders should watch for updates on how these views may influence market expectations leading into the next meeting.

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