PRIMER - Today's Fedspeak includes Fed's Waller

Newsquawk Staff · 22 Jun 2026, 11:50 UTC

14:00BST/09:00EDT: Fed’s Waller (voter, hawk) is due to give opening remarks. Speaking in May ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s first policy meeting in June, Waller said the Fed should remove its easing bias from the policy statement, and described suggests of near-term rate cuts as "crazy" given inflation is broadening and persistent. Waller’s comments were seen as hawkish, and emboldened market pricing for a rate hike this year. Meanwhile, Warsh’s first Fed meeting subsequently reinforced expectations for a hike, signalled a sharper focus on inflation, less forward guidance (the Fed did drop its easing bias), and more reliance on market signals. The updated projections showed the median 2026 FFR forecast rising to 3.8% (from 3.4%), implying one 25bps hike (rather than a cut previously pencilled in); 2027’s median rose to 3.6% (prev. 3.1%) and 2028’s to 3.4% (prev. 3.1%), with the longer-run rate unchanged at 3.1%. Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that markets viewed Warsh’s first FOMC as hawkish, lifting short-rate expectations and flattening the curve, but its analysts argued that the hawkish repricing may be overdone, and its baseline remains no Fed hikes this year as tariff inflation fades and lower oil limits second-round effects.

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US Market Open, 23 Oct, 10:15 UTC · what it led with

US President Trump says the US crushed Iran, and may want to do it a "little more".
Crude benchmarks firmer on ongoing tensions in the Middle East; recent bout of strength comes after the Houthis launched another missile towards Saudi interests.

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Riksbank maintains its rate at 1.75% as expected; assesses that the probability of a rate increase later this year remains; there is considerable uncertainty and developments call for vigilance
EUR/SEK+0.3%
Norges Bank maintains its rate at 4.25% as expected; may still become necessary to raise the policy rate
EUR/NOK+0.6%
Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.
WTI crude+1.5%

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