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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes non-voters Musalem and Goolsbee

Today’s discussions with Fed officials Musalem and Goolsbee highlight the contrasting views within the Fed regarding inflation and rate policy.

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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes non-voters Musalem and Goolsbee

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  • 14:30BST/09:30EDT: Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter, hawk) takes part in moderated discussion (no text expected; there will be a Q&A). Speaking this week, Musalem said there is little reason for further near-term easing, with the policy rate “right around neutral”. He said policy can react in either direction, but an accommodative stance is inadvisable. He expects the labour market to stabilise, inflation to move toward 2%, and US growth at or above potential. Speaking in April, Musalem noted that the oil shock is probably feeding core inflation, which he expects near 3% through year-end; he revised down his GDP growth estimate for this year to 1.5-2% (vs 2.0-2.5% pre-war), sees the jobless rate rising slightly; he argued that the supply shocks risk Fed goals.
  • 18:00BST/13:00EDT: Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, dovish) takes part in panel discussion (no text confirmation; there will be a Q&A). Speaking in mid-April, Goolsbee said policymakers face a “double danger” from the Middle East conflict and US tariffs, with inflation above 2%. He said the consumer remains resilient, more 2026 rate cuts are unlikely without disinflation, and prolonged high gas prices could un-anchor inflation expectations, though housing inflation has improved.
Context

Musalem’s hawkish stance suggests that further easing is unlikely, emphasizing a stable labor market and stubborn inflation, while Goolsbee’s dovish perspective underscores risks from external shocks and a resilient consumer, indicating that future rate cuts depend on disinflation. This divergence in views could impact market expectations for monetary policy and influence the USD's strength in response to upcoming inflation data.

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