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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes NY Fed’s Williams

Fed’s Williams is set to speak, drawing attention to his neutral stance amid recent FOMC discussions that suggest hesitance around signaling rate cuts.

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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes NY Fed’s Williams

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  • 17:50BST/12:50EDT: Fed’s Williams (voter, neutral; text release is expected) is due to deliver keynote remarks. Williams’ view of the FOMC easing bias will be in focus after last week’s confab revealed that three voting officials (Kashkari, Hammack, Logan) and some non-voters objected to language that implied the next rate move would be a cut, arguing such forward guidance was inappropriate given economic uncertainty. Speaking a fortnight ago, before the April FOMC, Williams said monetary policy is currently well positioned and modestly restrictive, adding that now is not the right time for firm forward guidance. He forecast 2026 growth of 2-2.5% (vs a median forecast of 2.4% in the Fed’s March SEP), unemployment of 4.25-4.50% (vs Fed median of 4.4%), and inflation reaching 2.75-3.00% this year before returning to target in 2027 (Fed median sees PCE at 2.7% in 2026; and Fed median sees inflation back at target in 2028; note, the Fed will update its projections at its 17th June policy meeting). He also noted that the Middle East conflict is already lifting inflation and creating supply chain disruptions.
Context

His remarks may influence market expectations, particularly regarding the Fed's easing bias in the current economic uncertainty, and could impact USD and fixed income valuations depending on how he frames growth and inflation forecasts.

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