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PRIMER - Today's Fedspeak: Powell & Williams

Today's discussions featuring Fed Chair Powell and Fed's Williams could provide important insights into the Fed's stance on inflation and interest rates.

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PRIMER - Today's Fedspeak: Powell & Williams

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  • 15:30BST/10:30EDT: Fed Chair Powell (voter; no text expected; Q&A expected) will participate in a moderated discussion at Harvard University. At his post-meeting press conference on 18th March, Powell leaned hawkish. His main concern was inflation persistence rather than growth weakness. He repeatedly stressed the need to see further progress in goods disinflation, flagged frustration over sticky non-housing services and made clear that, if inflation progress does not resume, cuts will not follow. On rates, Powell kept optionality but did not open the door to near-term easing. He said policy was in a good place, noting it was around the high end of neutral, or only modestly restrictive. He said the labour market was being watched closely, particularly weak private payroll growth, but stopped short of suggesting employment risks now dominate the Fed's policy balance. On his role as Fed Chair, Powell said that if a successor had not been confirmed before his term as Chair ends in May, he would remain in place as Fed Chair "Pro Tem"; on his role as Governor beyond that, he said he has no intention of leaving the Board until the DoJ investigation is over, and he he had not yet decided whether he would stay on.
  • 21:00BST/16:00EDT: Fed's Williams (voter, neutral; both text and Q&A are expected) will give remarks on the economic outlook. In an early March speech, Williams said current rates at between 3.5-3.75% are appropriate for now, but added that further cuts were possible if inflation eases as he expects. He said policy is well positioned, sees 2.5% growth this year, and expects PCE inflation to ease to 2.5% in 2026, before returning to target in 2027. His remarks did not touch on the Iran war. 
Context

Powell's hawkish leanings suggest a focus on inflation persistence rather than growth weakness, with no immediate easing in sight. Williams' remarks may further clarify the likelihood of rate cuts, particularly if inflation shows signs of easing through 2026.

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