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PRIMER - US CPI data for May is due at 13:30BST/08:30EDT

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Israeli PM Netanyahu says Israel and IDF will continue to act forcefully against Iran and its proxies that threaten the Middle East and the entire world

US President Trump says the US naval blockade is the most successful blockade in history; Iran is doing zero business, not paying their military, or any of their bills; says lots of oil is getting out

PRIMER - US CPI data for May is due at 13:30BST/08:30EDT

US President Trump says he is close to ordering new strikes against Iranian power plants and bridges, Fox reports; Iran taking too long to make the deal; he'll keep going on Iran

A US official told CNN yesterday that the new strikes were intended as a warning shot at Iran and that the US believed Washington's retaliatory strikes on Tehran wouldn’t upend negotiations to end the war, reports CNN's Treene

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  • EXPECTATIONS: US CPI data for May is expected to see the headline rise 0.5% M/M (prev. 0.6%), driven primarily by another jump in energy prices, with the annual rate climbing to 4.2% Y/Y (prev. 3.8%), the highest since April 2023; meanwhile, core inflation is seen rising 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.4%) and the annual rate of core CPI is expected to rise to 2.9% Y/Y (prev. 2.8%). 
  • NOWCASTS: The Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcasting model sees May headline CPI at +0.46% M/M and 4.18% Y/Y, with the core rate at +0.23% M/M and 2.82% Y/Y. Ahead, its June modelling sees headline CPI at +0.12% M/M and 4.05% Y/Y, with a June core rate of +0.23% M/M and 2.83% Y/Y. 
  • DRIVERS: BofA and Citi are at or below consensus on core, forecasting +0.20% and +0.22% M/M respectively; both expect shelter inflation to normalise following April’s outsized print, which was distorted by government shutdown-related measurement issues; BofA specifically pencilled in OER at +0.26% M/M and rent at +0.25% M/M. Core goods and other services are also expected to print modestly. A key forward-looking risk flagged by BofA is that while most tariff-driven inflation has run its course, Iran war-related supply chain pressures are building and could push core goods inflation firmer in H2 of this year. 
  • PCE IMPLICATIONS: Analysts will use the CPI and PPI data to model how the core PCE (the Fed’s preferred gauge) will come in; notably, core PCE has been running above core CPI since November, and that wedge looks set to persist; BofA initialised its core PCE tracking at +0.17% M/M (and 3.2% Y/Y) but flags upside risk from portfolio management fees; Citi expects a considerably firmer +0.37% M/M, driven by rising equity prices and AI-related components. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast models May PCE headline at +0.4% M/M and 3.99% Y/Y; for June, headline PCE is seen at +0.2% M/M and 3.9% Y/Y, with core PCE at +0.27% M/M and 3.34% Y/Y.

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