Primer: Banxico rate decision due Thursday 24th September at 20:00BST/15:00EDT

A hold at 6.50% would extend the pause Banxico signalled in its prior minutes, and decisions where the board has pre-committed in the minutes tend to be among the lowest-surprise events on the EM calendar; the MXN and TIIE curve reaction in such cases has historically hinged on the statement language and any dissent rather than the rate itself. The fault line to watch is the split between headline disinflation, which the bank itself acknowledges is progressing, and sticky services inflation, which Heath has flagged as the binding constraint; central banks in this position have historically tolerated long pauses rather than risk easing into unanchored services prices. Heath's framing of a cut being possible in around a year is the kind of explicit calendar guidance that anchors the front end of the TIIE curve and leaves the pricing question as one of timing confirmation rather than direction. The upgraded growth forecasts alongside an unchanged inflation path give the board cover to stay restrictive, a combination that in past episodes has compressed the odds of near-term easing even as the easing bias remains intact. The follow-ons are the vote split, any shift in the convergence language around the 3% target, and whether other board members echo or soften Heath's timetable in subsequent remarks.