A senior Israeli official says "The chance of an agreement between the US and Iran is 'small' - but not impossible', reports i24 News

The distinction worth drawing is between talks failing on substance, enrichment limits and sanctions sequencing, and talks failing on domestic politics, which is the angle raised here with the reference to electoral timing and the Revolutionary Guards' incentives. The transmission channel in past episodes has run primarily through crude, where the risk premium around Gulf supply and shipping insurance prices the probability of escalation rather than the probability of a deal, with gold and the yen picking up residual safe-haven flow and energy-sensitive equity sectors trading the inverse. On prior occasions the market has tended to fade single-source pessimism of this sort quickly unless corroborated by movement in enrichment activity, sanctions actions, or force posture in the region. The follow-ons are whether Washington echoes or contradicts the official, any Iranian response, and the calendar of remaining negotiating rounds. As reported commentary rather than a decision, the signal is low-grade.