Progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between the US and Iran, though reaching a ceasefire deal by President Trump's 8pm ET deadline still looks like a long shot, according Axios citing a US official, Israeli official and others

  • A U.S. official said the thinking in the White House has shifted from "can we get there?" to "can we get there by 8 o'clock tonight?"  
  • The key challenges at the moment are meeting Iran's demand for a strong guarantee that the U.S. and Israel won't just resume the war after a pause, and the slow pace of responses from Iranian leadership due to the security situation, sources say.

Regarding proposals earlier in the week

  • Iran sent a counter-proposal to the U.S. via the mediators on Monday. While it was incompatible with the U.S. positions, the White House actually saw it as somewhat encouraging, according to a U.S. official and another source with knowledge.
  • The mediators then worked with the Iranians on amendments and redrafting, a source familiar with that process said.

Talks

  • According to another source, there has been renewed discussion about a possible in-person meeting between a U.S. delegation led by Vance and an Iranian delegation.
  • There have also been discussions about a virtual meeting between the U.S. and Iranian negotiating teams along with Pakistani mediators.
  • Negotiations are expected to continue over the next several hours until Trump's deadline expires, sources said.
Context

The reported progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, while highlighting a shift in tone from the U.S. government, suggests a complex path ahead. With a ceasefire deal by Trump's 8pm deadline still unlikely, markets may remain cautious, particularly in sectors sensitive to geopolitical developments, like energy and currencies. Watch for potential volatility in oil prices and related equities as negotiations unfold.

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