RBA Minutes from March meeting stated that board members agreed financial conditions needed to be restrictive and that a further tightening would likely be needed but disagreed on whether to hike at the meeting
Importance
Level 1
Says:
- Agreed it is not possible to predict the future path of the cash rate with any confidence given the Middle East conflict.
- Rise in oil prices increased risk inflation would remain above target for a prolonged period.
- Oil prices around USD 100 would lift annual CPI inflation to around 5% in the June quarter.
- Rate hike could reduce the risk oil shock would flow into inflation expectations.
- Longer Middle East conflict could impact inflation and the economy.
- Majority felt it important to demonstrate clear commitment to return inflation to target.
- Majority judged financial conditions were insufficiently restrictive, even accommodative.
- Minority saw risk domestic consumption could be weaker than forecast and labour market looser.
- Minority wanted to wait for more information, even if rates would likely need to rise at some point.
- Minority was concerned that uncertainty caused by the Middle East could impact the economy.
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