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RBA Minutes from March meeting stated that board members agreed financial conditions needed to be restrictive and that a further tightening would likely be needed but disagreed on whether to hike at the meeting

Importance
Level 1

Says:

  • Agreed it is not possible to predict the future path of the cash rate with any confidence given the Middle East conflict.
  • Rise in oil prices increased risk inflation would remain above target for a prolonged period.
  • Oil prices around USD 100 would lift annual CPI inflation to around 5% in the June quarter.
  • Rate hike could reduce the risk oil shock would flow into inflation expectations.
  • Longer Middle East conflict could impact inflation and the economy.
  • Majority felt it important to demonstrate clear commitment to return inflation to target.
  • Majority judged financial conditions were insufficiently restrictive, even accommodative.
  • Minority saw risk domestic consumption could be weaker than forecast and labour market looser.
  • Minority wanted to wait for more information, even if rates would likely need to rise at some point.
  • Minority was concerned that uncertainty caused by the Middle East could impact the economy.
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