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Sell-side on Nike (NKE) post-earnings: PT lowered across the board, as Nike's recovery goes on a little longer

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Sell-side on Nike (NKE) post-earnings: PT lowered across the board, as Nike's recovery goes on a little longer

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  • Guggenheim lowers PT to USD 60 (prev. 74) and keeps a ‘Buy’; said Q4 beat was driven by better-than-exp. margins and sales across most geographies, though Nike noted retail sales began to see a broad-based slowdown in mid-April, leading mgmt. to temper the near-term sales outlook. Nike is "clearly not yet out of the woods," but the firm believes that quality of sales inflects before actual sales and argues that earlier-than-exp. gross margin expansion "may prove a critical leading indicator of business stabilisation."
  • Barclays lowers PT to USD 52 (prev. 67) and keeps an ‘Overweight’ rating; excluding tariff benefit, beat on sales, gross margin, and earnings. But, Nike's guidance implies weaker sales, slower wholesale sell-in, and negative estimate revisions, and Barclays believes Nike's turnaround is progressing "far slower than expected and is frustrating to both investors and mgmt. alike."
  • BofA lowers PT to USD 47 (prev. 55) and keeps a ‘Neutral’ rating; Q4 was in line with expectations, and the "biggest change" was reduced sales guidance, but unchanged EPS guidance. Concerns about declining sales in China and sportswear are offset by inflecting margins, with BofA maintaining the firm's FY27 EPS of 1.60, but lowered the firm's target to reflect slower progress on the sales turnaround.
  • Citi lowers PT to USD 45 (prev. 47) and keeps a ‘Neutral’ rating; Nike's 2026 outlook now assumes weaker sales and stronger margins than previously assumed, and Citi continues to see a complex turnaround at Nike and views the stock's multiple as "still-relatively high."
  • Stifel lowers PT to USD 45 (prev. 50) and keeps a ‘Hold’ rating; Sportswear and Jordan streetwear, which together make up c. half of Nike's business, are now explicitly guided negative for FY27, calling this "a meaningful step backwards from the prior framing of moving from defense to offense." Stifel adds the turnaround is taking longer than expected, and trimmed estimates "again" after their quarterly report.
  • Piper Sandler lowers PT to USD 45 (prev. 50) and keeps a ‘Neutral’ rating; slowdown seen in April was broad-based with particular weakness in Sportswear. Globally, Nike is seeing improvement in June from strength in World Cup and brand halo as a result, but is taking a more prudent approach to Q1 2027 guide, assuming trends in Q4 2026 continue.
  • Wells Fargo lowers PT to USD 40 (prev. 45) and keeps an ‘Equal Weight’ rating; St. numbers are again set to come down post Q4, as top-line pressures have worsened and will persist into H1 ‘27. Wells adds visibility remains very low, and global headwinds make the timing of the turn extremely hard to predict.

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