SNB’s Tschudin said the bank would cut its policy rate below 0% if warranted by inflation
- Swiss inflation is low because inflation expectations are low and oil has a small weight in Switzerland's consumption basket.
- Ready to take interest rates below zero if necessary.
- We don't publish interest rate forecasts; current inflation forecast should not be taken to mean interest rates will remain at current level for three years.
A sitting SNB official publicly holding the door open to a return to negative rates fits a familiar Swiss pattern: the SNB has operated below zero for extended stretches before and has historically been more willing than most central banks to use the tool, treating it as the standard defence against safe-haven franc strength compressing imported inflation. The mechanism worth noting is the transmission through the currency rather than domestic credit: sub-zero policy works mainly by narrowing the yield differential that draws capital into CHF, which is why such comments typically register first in EUR/CHF and CHF call pricing, then in the front end of the Swiss curve where the exemption threshold on sight deposits shapes how far cuts can run without hitting banks. The caveat that inflation forecasts are not rate forecasts is boilerplate from an institution that does not publish a rate path, and serves to preserve optionality rather than signal intent. The tells from here are whether other Governing Board members echo the framing, whether inflation prints validate the low-expectations narrative, and whether the SNB pairs any move with renewed intervention language, since in past episodes the two tools have been used in combination rather than in sequence. As rhetoric from one member, this conditions rather than commits.