Sources say Hezbollah has not yet received a "green light" from Iran to launch operations against Israel, Al Hadath reports

Sourcing of this kind, single outlet, unnamed officials, denial of imminent escalation rather than confirmation of it, has been a recurring feature of Iran-Israel tension cycles, where the gap between rhetorical posture and operational authorisation is the actual variable being priced. In comparable episodes the relevant distinction has been between proxy action that stays within established retaliation norms, which crude and havens tend to fade, and direct state-to-state exchange, which has historically produced the larger but shorter-lived risk premium unless energy infrastructure or shipping lanes are touched. The transmission channel here runs through WTI via supply disruption risk and through DXY and traditional havens via safe-haven flow; a 'not yet' headline leans toward the fade side of that pattern. The tells worth noting are whether Iranian officials publicly confirm or deny restraint, movement in Gulf freight and insurance rates, and any shift in Israeli force posture, since operational signals have tended to precede rhetorical ones. As an unsourced report of a negative, the information content is thin and subject to abrupt reversal; prior form is that these cycles reprice repeatedly on each new headline rather than resolving on any single one.