Daily US Equity Opening News - PYPL in sale talks with Stripe & Advent; Stripe to buy OpenRouter for USD 7bln+; NVDA & OpenAI near data centre financing deal; AAPL faces US opposition over China memory chips

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: France PM Lecornu will hold a crisis meeting on Monday over a cyberattack on the General Directorate of Public Finance.
• DATA: In North America, Canada July CPI is seen easing to 2.6% Y/Y (prev. 2.8%), core CPI is expected at 2.0% Y/Y (prev. 2.1%). In the US, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is due (prev. 15.60), as well as the NAHB housing market index (prev. 34); in later trade, TIC flows data will be released.
• CENTRAL BANKS: ECB’s Lane (dovish) participates in a panel on Europe’s defence build-up and its macroeconomic, fiscal and financial stability implications; text released.
• ENERGY: WTI September 2026 options expire.
• WEEK AHEAD: Fresh US measures against Iran are expected to be announced this week. Notable releases include: FOMC meeting minutes, global flash PMIs, UK jobs data, inflation reports from Japan, Canada and the UK. Notable corporates due to report earnings this week includes: Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Alibaba (BABA), Analog Devices (ADI), TJX Companies (TJX), Deere (DE), Lowe’s (LOW), Ross Stores (ROST), Target (TGT), Keysight (KEYS), Baidu (BIDU), Estee Lauder (EL).
• Click here for Newsquawk’s week ahead preview.
• Click here for Newsquawk’s weekly corporate earnings estimates.

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS:

• US-Iran MoU Expiry - The 60-day US-Iran Islamabad MoU reaches its deadline on Monday, though expiry does not automatically trigger a resumption of hostilities. Iran contends no ceasefire remains to extend as the US already violated the agreement, with no confirmed deal to replace or extend it. Markets will be focused on whether the deadline results in renewed negotiations, additional US sanctions, further military escalation, or progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the MoU with the US does not stipulate a 60-day deadline and that no talks have begun due to Washington’s violation of the agreement; Qatar is playing an influential role in de-escalation efforts alongside Pakistan, with ongoing contacts between Tehran and Doha; talks with Oman on a Strait of Hormuz navigation mechanism are continuing but progressing slowly due to the complexity of the subject and multiple actors involved.
• Iran - Iran’s hard-line leadership used the two months following the June MoU to prepare for an expanded confrontation rather than pursue a deal, WSJ reports. Steps include giving the Revolutionary Guard greater control over the regular army, appointing hardened veterans to key posts, ramping up missile and drone production, and coordinating with allied militias in Yemen and Iraq to extend the battlefield to the Red Sea.
• US Measures on Iran - Fresh US measures against Iran are expected this week. Bloomberg suggests that options include: sanctions on Chinese entities financing Iranian oil purchases, targeting exchange houses used to repatriate funds, imposing secondary sanctions on third-party trading partners, confiscating overseas assets, and expanding action against Iran’s shadow fleet. The article notes that China buys more than 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making it a central pressure point, though targeting Chinese banks risks worsening bilateral tensions ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting.
• US-South Korea - President Trump ordered the Pentagon to substantially reduce joint military exercises with South Korea, citing frustration that Seoul had not provided support for the US-Iran war. The South Korean Defence Ministry said the drills would proceed as previously announced. The move raised concerns among APAC allies, coming as the USS George Washington was diverted from the region to the Middle East, Bloomberg notes.
• French Cyber Attack - France PM Lecornu will hold a crisis meeting on Monday over a cyberattack on the General Directorate of Public Finance. The breach exposed data from 678K individual and business tax accounts, including taxable income, withholding rates and property information. A judicial investigation is under way, with affected taxpayers to be notified from Monday.
• UK Defence Supply Chains - The UK MoD is increasing scrutiny of its defence supply chain after a routine cyber vulnerability assessment revealed that K3 Scout naval drones, made by Kraken Technology Group and used by the Royal Navy, had been transmitting signals to China, Bloomberg reports.
• China-Japan - Japan’s Defence Minister Koizumi visited Yasukuni shrine on the 81st anniversary of Japan’s surrender, drawing condemnation from China and South Korea. PM Takaichi reportedly made an offering, but did not visit. China criticised the shrine’s wartime symbolism, while South Korea summoned two Japanese officials and lodged a protest.

MACRO:

• China Activity Data - Chinese Industrial Production eased to 4.5% Y/Y in July (exp. 5.0%); unemployment rose to 5.2% (exp. 5.1%, prev. 5.0%); retail sales growth cooled to 0.6% Y/Y (exp. 1.5%, prev. 1.0%); fixed asset investment rose 6.7% YTD (exp. -6.2%, prev. -5.7%). China’s NBS said the external environment remains complex, with some firms facing operating difficulties. Added that China will continue to expand domestic demand.
• Fed - Goldman Sachs said markets remain too hawkish on Fed rate hikes. Chief economist Jan Hatzius said a September increase is “very unlikely” after weaker retail sales, employment and inflation data. Money markets are now pricing the next 25bps hike in January, and GS sees further scope for rate hike bets to unwind.
• BoJ - Overnight, Japanese government bonds fell as fiscal concerns and expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike pushed the 10yr yield to 2.93%, its highest since 1996, and 30yr yields rose to 4.06%. Elsewhere, former Japanese vice finance minister for international affairs Takehiko Nakao said the BoJ should raise its benchmark rate at every meeting, targeting above 2% to narrow the rate differential with the US and ease JPY pressure. Markets are currently pricing 79% probability of a rate rise at the 18th September confab, while reports not persisting uncertainty over funding planned sales-tax cuts.
• UK Ratings - Fitch affirmed the UK’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at ‘AA-’ with a Stable Outlook. Fitch says the UK’s AA- rating is underpinned by its high-income, diversified economy, credible macro policy framework, deep capital markets, sterling’s reserve-currency role and strong governance. Risks centre on high and rising debt, elevated interest costs, slower fiscal consolidation, weak growth and possible fiscal-rule loosening. A weaker growth outlook or steeper debt trajectory could trigger downgrade pressure. Real GDP growth is forecast at 0.9% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, with inflation projected to rise to 3.7% by year-end before falling to 2% by end-2028. General government debt is forecast to reach 106% of GDP by end-2028, from 102.4% at end-2025, with the BoE expected to hold rates at 3.75% through 2026.

TRADE:

• US-South Korea - South Korea said talks with the US over strategic investment projects are continuing. Seoul’s USD 350bln US investment pledge includes USD 200bln for strategic projects and USD 150bln for shipbuilding. Washington has reportedly pressed for faster implementation. Separately, South Korea’s chief trade negotiator Yeo Han-koo was dismissed, Yonhap reported.
• US-Colombia - Colombian President de la Espriella asked US President Trump to temporarily suspend tariffs on Colombian goods following a deadly earthquake.

13-F FILINGS:

• Appaloosa Management - New buys: BA, AAL, CRWV, AVGO, GT. Increases: TSM, AMZN, EWY, GOOG, META. Cuts: BABA, WHR, QCOM, AMD, MU. Exits: SNDK, GLW, PDD, LHX, RTX.
• Berkshire Hathaway - Increases: GOOGL, GOOG, DAL, LEN, M. Cuts: KR, COF, NUE, ALLY, DVA. Exits: STZ.
• DME Capital Management - New buys: FBIN, VGNT, PRMB, PYPL, WBD. Increases: SHC, DCH, AR, VTRS, HSIC. Cuts: VSNT, DHT, GLD, SPB, CPRI. Exits: VSXY, SLM, PTON, WFRD, ZIM.
• Elliott Management - New buy: SNPS. Increases: HPE, NCLH. Cuts: SU, TFPM, SDRL, LUV. Exits: CCI, GLIBK.
• Icahn Capital - Increases: IEP, SD. Cuts: AEP, JBLU.
• JANA Partners - Increases: ALKT, LW, RPD, MKL, COO. Cuts: FISV, P, MRCY.
• Lone Pine Capital - New buys: NBIS, STX, HD, AMAT, LIN. Increases: PFGC, WULF, MDLN, USFD, CVNA. Cuts: TSM, BN, MCK, LPLA, CRS. Exits: VST, TLN, CLH, THC, COF.
• Paulson & Co. - New buy: GOOGL. Increases: THM. Cuts: MDGL, AAMI. Exits: AEM.
• Pershing Square - New buys: UBER, BAM, MSFT, AMZN, QSR. Exits: HHH.
• Soros Fund Management - New buys: AEP, NBIS, APGE, DBRG, TMHC. Increases: ETR, DLR, GOOGL, WBS, SPGI. Cuts: AMZN, VST, FIGR, SW, IBKR. Exits: CRM, PEN, SEM, GFS, CCO.
• Starboard Value - New buys: DT, FLS. Increases: IJH, BILL. Cuts: NWSA, KMX, HR, QRVO, MTCH. Exits: GEN, BDX, ROG.
• Third Point - New buys: WBD, KEYS, XYZ, FLEX, TTMI. Increases: GOOGL, NSC, COF, LYV, TSM. Cuts: TDS, CRS, AMZN, MTZ. Exits: META, NVDA, KLAC, LRCX.

FINANCIALS:

• PayPal (PYPL) - PayPal is in talks to sell itself to a group comprising Stripe and private equity firm Advent International, WSJ reported late Friday. Stripe and Advent proposed USD 60.50/shr in July, valuing PayPal at approximately USD 53bln, which PayPal deemed insufficient; the two sides have since been negotiating a higher price. WSJ says that a deal could come together within weeks, though no agreement is guaranteed.
• Mastercard (MA) - Mastercard card payments were temporarily declined for some Australian customers on 15th August, due to a global issue caused by a scheduled system update, which has since been resolved, Bloomberg reports. Commonwealth Bank of Australia confirmed the disruption, with Downdetector recording over 1,900 outage reports by mid-afternoon in Sydney.
• UK Banks - JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon warned UK Chancellor Healey against raising taxes on banks in a call last week, citing the risk of driving away jobs and capital, FT reports. PM Burnham’s government has left open the possibility of increasing bank levies in its October budget, with strong financial sector profits fuelling calls from organised labour for higher charges on lenders.
• German Pensions - Germany’s private pension pot is set to double to approximately EUR 500bln over the coming decade under a reform taking effect on 1st January 2027, replacing the low-return Riester system with subsidised brokerage accounts investing in ETFs and private markets, Bloomberg reports. S&P Global has estimated the reform will unlock EUR 26-56bln in additional annual inflows after an initial on-boarding period. Asset managers including DWS (DWS GY), JPMorgan Asset Management (JPM), Vanguard and BlackRock (BLK) are racing to have products ready ahead of the launch.

TECH:

• OpenRouter, Stripe - Stripe has finalised an agreement to acquire AI model marketplace OpenRouter for more than USD 7bln, though the final price could change. OpenRouter provides developers access to over 400 AI models and serves 8mln developers, and the deal marks a significant step-up from its most recent valuation of USD 1.3bln, at which it raised capital earlier this year.
• OpenAI, Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia and OpenAI are nearing a deal to finance a large-scale data centre campus in Ohio, with Nvidia’s financial guarantee reduced from USD 250bln to under USD 120bln to address investor concerns over risk exposure, WSJ reports. The revised structure covers the first phase of roughly 5 gigawatts, with Nvidia to decide later on financing the remainder of the 10-gigawatt site, which is being developed by SoftBank (SFTBY) subsidiary SB Energy.
• Apple (AAPL) - Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the Trump administration opposes Apple using Chinese memory chips, WSJ reports. Apple has tested chips from CXMT and Yangtze Memory Technologies amid shortages and rising prices. Apple says it must consider all options to address supply constraints. Companies like Micron Technology (MU) have urged the administration to block such use. Separately, Apple is reportedly set to unveil a foldable iPhone alongside its next-generation iPhone 18 series on 9th September, according to Taiwanese press reports cited by UDN.
• Anthropic - Anthropic told investors its preliminary Q2 2026 revenue was more than USD 11.5bln, up over 14x from USD 787mln in Q2 2025, and vs USD 4.73bln in Q1 2026, Bloomberg reports. The quarter also saw Anthropic report positive adj. operating income. The news was revealed as Anthropic is meeting prospective investors ahead of a potential IPO. Elsewhere, Reuters reports that Anthropic is projecting 2028 revenue of approximately USD 190-200bln, a figure Wall Street is using as the basis for IPO valuation given the pace of the company’s growth. Cloudflare (NET), Palantir (PLTR) and SpaceX (SPCX) are among the public comparables being considered ahead of Anthropic’s analyst day.

COMMUNICATIONS:

• Alphabet (GOOG) - Alphabet hired banks for a debut Australian dollar bond offering across four maturities of up to 20 years, and is looking to raise AUD 5bln, Bloomberg reports. The offering follows Alphabet’s USD 25bln multi-part USD deal earlier this month, an AUD 85bln equity raise, and issuance in multiple other currencies in 2026.
• EchoStar (ECHO), CONX (CNXX), Verizon (VZ) - EchoStar co-founder/chairman Charlie Ergen agreed to acquire a controlling stake in wireless provider MobileX VIA his SPAC, CONX, WSJ reports. The deal, pending regulatory approval, values MobileX at approximately USD 200mln, and will grant Verizon a minority stake by converting an existing loan into equity. Peter Adderton will remain MobileX CEO.
• Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) - Madison Square Garden Sports filed a Form 10 with the US SEC for its proposed tax-free spin-off of the New York Rangers business. MSG Sports would become MSG Knickerbockers Corp., while MSG Rangers Corp. would include the Rangers, Hartford Wolf Pack and MSG Training Center. Completion is targeted by end-October 2026, subject to approvals and other conditions.

CONSUMER CYCLICAL:

• Alibaba (BABA) - Qwen open-weight AI models surpassed 3bln global downloads over six months, outpacing Meta (META) and Google (GOOG), Bloomberg reports. Alibaba has open-sourced more than 460 models, generating over 300K derivatives. Hugging Face described Qwen as a major foundation of the open AI ecosystem, with adoption strengthened by enterprise distribution through Alibaba’s cloud platform.
• Bally’s (BALY) - Q2 revenue USD 792.23mln (exp. 789.72mln). Consolidated revenue +20% Y/Y, driven by Bally’s Intralot B2C +22%, North America Interactive +17% and Casinos & Resorts +2%; management cited stable regional performance and improving H2 revenue momentum. Bally’s warned that, based on current forecasts and excluding potential financings, it does not expect to satisfy liquidity maintenance requirements or its consolidated net leverage covenant once reinstated, raising substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern. The company is pursuing asset monetisations, an equity sale and debt financings to improve liquidity; in July, it signed a non-binding term sheet for a loan to fund further development of the Bally’s Bronx project and general corporate purposes. Management said these financing plans are not finalised and may not be successfully implemented.
• Geely Automobile (GELHY) - Geely Automobile’s Q2 profit rose 36% to CNY 4.9bln, matching estimates; revenue increased 15% to CNY 89.8bln. H1 profit was down 1.8% to CNY 9.09bln (exp. 7.1bln), with revenue of CNY 173.6bln (exp. 179.5bln). Exports more than doubled to 474,228 vehicles in H1, helping offset a 20% decline in Chinese car sales. Stellantis (STLA) - Stellantis has notified Canadian union Unifor that it is considering closing its Ontario plant and putting it up for sale, citing the impact of US tariffs.

CONSUMER STAPLES:

• US Beef Prices - US beef sales volumes fell 0.3% in the 13 weeks to mid-July, contrasting with roughly 5% growth in the same period in each of the prior two years, as consumers shift to cheaper proteins such as chicken, Bloomberg reports. Average ground beef prices were USD 7.116/pound in July, up 9.4% Y/Yyear-on-year, the most modest annual increase in 17 months. The US domestic cattle herd remains near its lowest level in five decades, keeping supplies tight.

INDUSTRIALS:

• AI Data Centres - AI data centre construction is driving a US manufacturing boom, WSJ writes. The report says Caterpillar (CAT), Eaton (ETN), Cummins (CMI) and Ford (F) are among companies pivoting to capitalise. It notes that Caterpillar is investing USD 725mln to expand generator production, while Cummins is investing USD 450mln and expects data centre-related sales to rise 80% to USD 9bln by 2030. Ford’s new Ford Energy subsidiary plans to spend USD 2bln redirecting EV batteries to data centre storage.
• Genco Shipping (GNK), Diana Shipping (DSX) - Diana Shipping withdrew its offer to acquire Genco Shipping, citing demands from the Genco board it deemed unrealistic. Genco sought USD 27.50/shr in cash, USD 2.00 in dividends, and three Diana shares per Genco share, implying total consideration of approximately USD 36.91/shr, which would have been a 42% premium to Genco’s 13th August closing price. Diana said it would continue monitoring Genco as its largest shareholder.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB), Globalstar (GSAT), MDA Space (MDA) - Rocket Lab, Globalstar and MDA Space confirmed they had successfully launched and deployed eight HIBLEO-4 replacement satellites, with all reaching their intended orbital planes.
• Boeing (BA) - Boeing was awarded a USD 636.11mln Army contract modification for performance-based logistics support, depot-level component repair and supply chain management for Apache airframe components, bringing the contract’s total cumulative value to USD 1.13bln.

MATERIALS:

• BHP Group (BHP) - BHP Group heads into its FY results, due Tuesday, with a record-low four buy ratings from the 30 brokers tracked by Bloomberg, with firms dropping their bullish views over the past year. Earnings expectations have moderated after BHP guided copper output as low as 1.65mln tons in the current fiscal year.
• Glencore (GLNCY) - Korea Eximbank announced it will lend USD 1bln to a Swiss subsidiary of Glencore to facilitate copper supply to South Korean companies.

ENERGY:

• Strait of Hormuz - Middle Eastern producers including the UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait are shuttling crude through the Strait of Hormuz using vessels with transponders turned off, with volumes running above market estimates of 4mln BPD, Bloomberg reports citing sources. The covert trade has helped keep Brent futures trading between USD 80-90/bbl through August, well below fears of USD 150/bbl at the conflict’s outset. BBG adds that around 150 vessels are anchored in the Gulf of Oman awaiting transfers, vs roughly 40 in January.
• India LNG - India ordered refiners and producers to maximise LPG output as Strait of Hormuz uncertainty threatens imports, Bloomberg reports. Domestic production has risen from about 36K tonnes daily before the war to as much as 54K, with a nationwide target of 63.81K.
• Petrobras (PBR) - Petrobras said it has identified hydrocarbons in the Morpho exploratory well in Block FZA-M-59, offshore Amapa in Brazil’s Foz do Amazonas Basin. The well is about 175km offshore in 2,886 metres of water. Petrobras said evaluation is continuing. The company operates the block with a 100% interest.

HEALTHCARE:

AstraZeneca (AZN) - AstraZeneca is discontinuing the Phase 3 eVOLVE-Lung02 trial of volrustomig plus chemotherapy as a first-line therapy after the IDMC concluded the combination was unlikely to meet either primary endpoint of progression-free survival or overall survival. Sandoz (SDZNY) - Sandoz announced a development, manufacturing and commercialisation collaboration with Shanghai Henlius Biotech covering up to 10 biosimilars, with an initial group of assets already agreed.