The US administration believes that the Iran-Oman discussions broke down weeks ago, Semafor reports citing an official source

Back-channel contacts between Washington and Tehran have historically run through Muscat, and a disclosed breakdown of that channel has tended to matter less as news of the talks themselves than as confirmation that the diplomatic off-ramp is closed for now. In past episodes of this kind, the sequence has run from stalled contacts to escalation in enforcement and signalling, with the oil transmission channel being the risk premium on Gulf supply: the question the market prices is whether breakdown raises the probability of disruption through the Strait of Hormuz or tighter sanctions enforcement on Iranian barrels already reaching market. Semafor-sourced administration leaks of this type have on previous occasions served as deliberate signalling, so attribution to an unnamed official is itself part of the story. The distinction worth drawing is between a breakdown that precedes kinetic escalation and one that precedes renewed sanctions pressure, since the former prices as a supply-shock premium in prompt crude spreads while the latter tends to feed through more gradually via freight, insurance, and dark-fleet economics. The follow-ons are any shift in enforcement posture, statements from Omani intermediaries, and whether crude time spreads and options skew confirm the premium rather than the headline alone. As a single-source report on the administration's belief rather than an Iranian or Omani confirmation, it sits at the lower end of verification.