[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD action mixed against G10 peers, weaker vs. cyclicals, firmer/flat vs havens

The session carries three distinct threads, each with its own precedent. The Treasury refunding surprise is the dominant one: in past episodes where a debt manager has signalled willingness to lean against long-end yields at a perceived ceiling, the initial reaction has been pronounced curve flattening and a softer dollar, with follow-through dependent on whether the signal proves durable in subsequent auctions rather than the size of the first adjustment. Dovish-leaning FOMC minutes compound that at the front end, which makes the scheduled remarks from sitting officials the natural next test of whether the market's read of the minutes reflects the committee's centre of gravity. The Riksbank outcome fits a familiar pattern in which a central bank broadly in line on policy still sells the currency when it fails to validate priced tightening, and the gap between bank forecasts for hikes and the statement's language is exactly the kind of divergence that has tended to resolve through the next inflation prints. The Australian employment miss and AUD underperformance despite constructive risk is the standard case where domestic data overrides the beta channel, with AUD/NZD the cleanest expression. The DXY break of prior support leaves technical levels as the near-term reference absent fresh catalysts.