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The US and a group of regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as Thursday, but are still waiting for a response from Tehran, two sources with knowledge of the discussions tell Axios.

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The US and a group of regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as Thursday, but are still waiting for a response from Tehran, two sources with knowledge of the discussions tell Axios.

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  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned Trump might strike a deal that falls well short of Israel's objectives, includes significant concessions, and limits Israel's ability to conduct strikes against Iran, two Israeli sources say.
  • A third source said Israeli leaders were skeptical Iran had actually offered the concessions the U.S. claimed.
  • If the plans for a summit firm up, Vice President Vance is likely to be involved. "But its not clear if there is anything to be involved in. Everyone is trying to figure out if it's real," one source with knowledge said.
  • The U.S. also gave its 15-point plan to Israel. While the document aligns with Israel's positions, Israel is highly skeptical Iran will agree to Trump's full demands, an Israeli official said.
  • "There is concern that Trump will decide to cut a deal and stop the war even if only some of his demands are met and postpose the rest for later without a clear solution," a second Israeli source said.
  • The U.S. told the Israelis that Iran had agreed to give up its 450kg stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium, accept enhanced UN inspections and monitoring of its nuclear sites, limit the range of its ballistic missiles and cut back on support for proxies, the source said.
  • The document calls for zero uranium enrichment in Iran, an Israeli source said. The U.S. side said Iran had agreed to suspend enrichment, but it's unclear for how long.
  • It's also unclear who purportedly made those commitments on behalf of Iran. The regime has previously rejected many of those U.S. demands, and Israeli intelligence believes there's still a big gap between the U.S. and Iranian positions.
  • An Israeli source and a second source familiar with the diplomacy said the U.S. is waiting on a decision from the Iranians — possibly Mojtaba Khamenei himself — on whether to hold talks this week.
  • A White House official described the situation as "fluid": Trump wants to see if a deal can be struck, but "if not we will go back to bombing them."

Context

The U.S. is navigating potential high-level peace talks with Iran but faces skepticism from Israeli officials, raising tensions in the region. The outcome could significantly impact diplomatic relations, energy markets, and investor sentiment, particularly regarding equities and commodities linked to geopolitical stability. If Iran engages, it could signal a shift in the U.S.-Iran dynamic, but uncertainty remains about compliance and the authenticity of promises made by Tehran.

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