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Today's Fedspeak - Waller, Daly, Paulson, Schmid, Collins, Hammack, Goolsbee, Miran

Newsquawk Staff ·

  • 12:30GMT/07:30EST: Fed’s Waller (voter, dove) will speak on Bloomberg TV; speaking last week, Waller said struck his usual dovish tone, saying he dissented in January in favour of another 25bps cut and sees March as a near coin flip. He would back a cut if January’s jobs strength is revised away or fades, but could support a hold if labour downside risks ease. He is concerned hiring remains weak, labour demand is softening and unemployment could rise. On inflation, he said recent PCE/CPI readings remain above target, but underlying inflation excluding tariff effects is close to 2% and tariff-driven price pressures should be looked through as temporary.
  • 13:30GMT/08:30EST, and 15:15GMT/10:15EST: Fed’s Daly (2027 voter, dove; no text expected, but there will be a Q&A). Speaking in mid-Feb, Daly said policy was slightly restrictive but broadly in a good place following the 75bps of cuts, with around 75bps still needed to reach neutral levels. She said inflation remains above target and the Fed still has more work to do, although price pressures continue to ease outside goods. Growth is solid, but firms report uncertain demand and the labour market has less churn. She also said productivity gains may be lifting the neutral rate, though the near-term effect is likely limited. Overall, the tone suggests no urgency, but a continued easing bias as inflation falls.
  • 15:15GMT/10:15EST: Fed’s Paulson (voter, dovish; text and Q&A expected): speaking in mid-January before the January confab, Paulson leaned mildly dovish, stating she was comfortable in holding rates steady, while still seeing modest cuts later in 2026 if growth stays near 2%, inflation continues to moderate and the labour market stabilises. She said policy is still slightly restrictive and above neutral, which remains appropriate for now to ensure inflation returns to 2%. She seemed more sensitive to labour market downside, warning jobs could weaken quickly, while sticky inflation risks appear somewhat less acute.
  • 16:30GMT/11:30EST: Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter, hawk; no text expected, but Q&A is) will speak on CNBC. Speaking in recent weeks, Schmid stuck with his hawkish tone. He said inflation remains too hot, leaving little room for complacency, and he opposes further rate cuts for now. He described the labour market as balanced, with demand still outpacing supply, suggesting no cyclical weakness that would warrant easier policy. He said the Fed is well positioned, but still has work to do to return inflation to 2%.
  • 18:20GMT/13:20EST: Fed’s Collins (2028 voter, neutral; text expected, but no Q&A). Speaking towards the end of Feb, Collins signalled a steady policy stance, saying rates will quite likely stay unchanged for some time. She described policy as mildly restrictive and possibly close to neutral, implying limited urgency to ease. Recent jobs data has been encouraging, with last year’s labour market softening not amounting to real weakness. On inflation, she wants greater confidence that disinflation is continuing, though her baseline is for price pressures to ease later this year. She also said the latest tariff developments have not materially changed her outlook.
  • 18:30GMT/11:30EST, and 20:10GMT/15:10EST: Fed’s Hammack (voter, hawk; text and Q&A expected). Speaking to the NYT this week, Hammack struck a hawkish tone, arguing the Fed should be in no rush to cut, and backed an extended pause. She said the labour market has stabilised, reducing the case for near-term easing, while inflation remains a concern after limited progress back to 2%. On the Middle East, she said it is too early to judge the net economic effect, but higher energy prices pose a fresh inflation risk and could make price pressures more persistent even if demand softens.
  • 14:50GMT/09:50EST: Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, dovish) will speak on Bloomberg TV. Speaking in recent days, Goolsbee retained an easing bias but stressed patience. He said rates can come down this year, and he remains among the more optimistic Fed officials regarding cuts, but only once inflation is clearly moving back to target. He warned inflation progress has stalled, with sticky core services keeping the Fed vigilant, and said easing too early could overheat the economy. He added growth and the labour market remain steady rather than fragile, reducing pressure for near-term cuts.
  • 18:30GMT/11:30EST: Fed’s Miran (voter, uber dove) will speak on CNBC. Speaking this week, Miran kept his uber dovish stance, stating that 100bps of easing in 2026 remains appropriate via four 25bps cuts toward neutral, and that a March cut is still justified. He downplayed the Middle East as an immediate inflation threat, saying oil’s pass-through to core inflation is limited and markets are not signalling lasting concern. He also highlighted ongoing labour market softening and slack, arguing it is too early to dismiss that trend. On inflation, he said housing disinflation could even push inflation below 2%, reinforcing the case for easier policy. NOTE: the White House has confirmed that Fed Chair Nominee Warsh will be replacing Miran on the Board of Governors.

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