TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (U6) SETTLE 11 TICKS LOWER AT 108-18+

Treasury curve bear steepens in quiet trade despite soft retail sales. At settlement, 2-year +2.2bps at 4.171%, 3-year +2.8bps at 4.247%, 5-year +3.9bps at 4.362%, 7-year +4.5bps at 4.517%, 10-year +4.7bps at 4.696%, 20-year +5.6bps at 5.266%, 30-year +4.8bps at 5.267%.

THE DAY: Treasury yields rose across the curve on Friday, with the long end generally leading the move higher in a bear steepening, although there was no obvious catalyst behind the price action amid relatively quiet trade.

US economic data was soft but had little lasting impact. July Retail Sales disappointed expectations, while the preliminary University of Michigan survey showed a notable deterioration in consumer sentiment. The headline sentiment index fell to 51.0 from 55.2, below the 54.5 forecast, with Current Conditions declining to 51.8 from 54.8 and Consumer Expectations falling to 50.6 from 55.4. However, inflation expectations were less encouraging, with the 1-year measure rising to 4.3% from 4.2%, while the 5-year measure remained elevated at 3.3%. Despite the softer activity and sentiment data, Fed pricing was little changed, with money markets continuing to assign around a 67% probability of the Fed remaining on hold in September.

Oil prices were around USD 1/bbl firmer, potentially providing some modest upward pressure on yields through the inflation channel, although there was little fresh on the geopolitical front and the move in crude was relatively contained.  On which, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will implement unprecedented measures on Iran and are conducting a maximum pressure campaign against the country, while the UKMTO said a tanker was struck by a drone while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz.

Overall, there appeared to be no single catalyst behind the bear steepening, with the long end underperforming despite soft US data and little change in Fed expectations. The move may instead reflect some position adjustment and continued term-premium pressure at the long end following the recent backup in yields, particularly with the Fed providing little forward guidance on the future policy path.

SUPPLY

Notes/Bonds

• US to sell USD 16bln of 20-year bonds on August 19th and USD 8bln of 30-year TIPS on August 20th; all to settle August 31st Bills

• US to sell USD 95bln of 6-week bills on August 18th on August 18th, USD 92bln of 13-week bills and USD 79bln of 26-week bills on August 17th; all to settle August 20th.

STIRS / OPERATIONS

• Fed Hike Pricing via CME Fed Watch: Sept 8.2bps (prev. 8.1bps), Dec 24.2bps (prev 23.1bps).
• EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 106bln (prev. USD 106bln) on August 13th
• SOFR at 3.62% (prev. 3.62%), volumes at USD 2.932tln (prev. USD 2.943tln) on August 13th
• NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.45bln (prev. 0.725bln) across 1 counterparties (prev. 1) on August 13th