UBS says if the closure of Strait of Hormuz is extended beyond the next couple of weeks, Brent could see further upside north of USD 100/bbl

• UBS raises its Q1 26 Brent forecast to USD 71/bbl, implying around USD 80/bbl in March, and raises the 2026 average by USD 10/bbl to USD 72/bbl.
• UBS says potential strikes on energy infrastructure, such as on Qatar LNG, could push Brent up to USD 90/bbl+, depending on severity.

UBS's commentary highlights how geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, could propel Brent crude prices above USD 100/bbl if disruptions extend beyond the short term. Their revised forecasts suggest a bullish outlook for oil prices in the near term, indicating heightened market sensitivity to supply-side risks, especially related to energy infrastructure attacks. This scenario is critical for traders as it may influence inflation and currency flows among energy-exporting and importing nations.