UK OBR Forecasts:

• Sees GBP 17.8bln less borrowing between FY25/26 - FY30/31 vs November.
• Bank rate expectations and gilt yields have fallen slightly since the November forecast.
• Scenario where UK equity prices fall by 15% in 2026/27 would leave government borrowing GBP 15bln higher in 2027/28.
• Government's commitment that defence spending should reach 3.5% of GDP by 2035 could cost around an additional GBP 40bln in today's money.
• Expect weak labour market demand to continue in the near term. 

Inflation

• 2026: 2.3% (prev. 2.5%, BoE exp. 2.0%)
• 2027: 2.0% (prev. 2.0%, BoE exp. 1.8%)
• 2028: 2.0% (prev. 2.0%)
• 2029: 2.0% (prev. 2.0%)
• 2030: 2.0% (prev. 2.0%)