US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) 92.8 vs. Exp. 89.5 (Prev. 91.8 , Low. 80.3 , High. 95.0 )
- Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations ticked downward but continued to be elevated.
- The percentage of consumers saying interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net rose to nearly 50%.
- Expectations for higher stock prices a year from now ticked up.
Present Situation
Consumers’ views of current business conditions eroded in April.
- 22.0% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 21.7% in March.
- However, 17.9% said business conditions were “bad,” up from 15.8%.
On net, consumers’ views of the labor market improved moderately in April.
- 27.3% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” virtually unchanged from 27.4% in March.
- 19.8% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 21.3%.
Expectations Six Months Hence
Overall, consumers were slightly more pessimistic about future business conditions in April.
- 18.9% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, up from 18.1% in March.
- Conversely, 23.6% expected business conditions to worsen, up from 21.4%.
However, consumers were less negative about the labor market outlook in April.
- 16.1% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, up from 15.4% in March.
- 26.9% anticipated fewer jobs, down from 27.8%.
On net, consumers’ outlook for their income prospects was also slightly more optimistic in April.
- 18.6% of consumers expected their incomes to increase, down from 19.2% in March.
- But only 12.3% expected their incomes to decline, also down from 13.6%.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise, and panel of over 36 million consumers. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was April 22.
The US Consumer Confidence index for April came in at 92.8, notably above expectations of 89.5, indicating a stronger sentiment than anticipated. While inflation expectations remain elevated, the slight increase in the proportion of consumers expecting higher stock prices and the overall moderate improvement in labor market perception suggest a nuanced outlook, offering potentially positive implications for consumer spending and economic activities. However, the erosion in views on current business conditions signals caution amidst the optimism, which markets may interpret as mixed.