US CPI Core Goods & Services (m/m SA, y/y NSA) + Supercore (July 2026):

The decomposition here carries more information than the headline print: core goods has swung from modest deflation in the prior two months to a 0.2% monthly gain, while core services continues to grind lower on an annual basis. That split is the classic frame for this stage of the cycle, where goods prices are watched as the transmission channel for tariff pass-through and import costs, and services, particularly the supercore measure that strips out shelter, is treated as the cleaner read on domestic wage-driven pressure. A firming goods print alongside a softening supercore monthly rate is a combination that has historically left the policy signal ambiguous, since the goods component is volatile and prone to reversal while the services trend is what committees have tended to anchor on. The missing monthly observations in the autumn stretch of the table are a reminder that recent comparison bases are uneven, which can distort year-on-year reads in either direction. What typically matters next is whether the goods uptick repeats, single-month tariff-related jumps have often faded, whereas two or three consecutive firm prints have shifted the debate. The follow-on calendar items are the pipeline gauges, import prices and PPI, which historically lead the goods component by a month or two.