US CRUDE WRAP: WTI (V6) SETTLES USD 2.44 HIGHER AT USD 86.83/BBL

The crude complex was firmer on Thursday, as US/Iran relations show no sign of improving. WTI and Brent saw gains through the duration of the European morning to hit peaks of USD 87.69/bbl and USD 94.71/bbl, respectively, before coming off highs in the US session, albeit still remaining firmly in the green. US and Iran appear no closer to any sort of peace agreement or extended ceasefire, with Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei today noting "The best response to Trump's escalation of economic warfare is to withdraw from the NPT [Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty]". Following this, Al Arabiya, citing sources, reported that Trump "told his negotiating team that the chances of an agreement with Iran have become slim", and ordered a freeze on negotiations with Iran for several weeks. Note, benchmarks did see modest pressure on this, and it could be due to the fact it is strange that Arabic news would be getting sources from inside the Trump admin, and as such markets may be took it with a pinch of salt. Moreover, in US Treasury Secretary Bessent's TV interview, he said he will hold a press conference on Monday to discuss actions regarding Iran, which he claims will collapse the regime, but details remain very light. The calendar on Friday is light, so participants await the weekly Baker Hughes rig count and any headline risk, albeit it has been a pretty quiet week.

Crude sessions driven by US/Iran escalation rhetoric follow a familiar pattern: benchmarks build a geopolitical premium through the European morning and then fade into the US session as the moves prove headline-led rather than supply-led, exactly the shape seen here. The distinction that matters in these episodes is between rhetoric that threatens actual barrels, through sanctions enforcement, shipping insurance costs in the Gulf, or disruption to flows through regional chokepoints, and rhetoric that merely hardens negotiating positions; historically only the former sustains a premium, while the latter bleeds out within sessions. Sourcing quality is the tell: markets have tended to discount reports from regional outlets claiming insight into internal administration deliberations, as this one apparently was, while statements attributed directly to named officials carry more weight. A freeze on talks removes a near-term de-escalation catalyst, which typically keeps a floor under the premium even as upside stalls. The scheduled official press conference on Iran policy is the next concrete event risk, since announced actions on sanctions enforcement would be the channel through which rhetoric becomes a physical supply question. Rig count and a thin data calendar leave headline flow as the dominant driver into the weekend.