DAY AHEAD:

• DATA: In Europe, Eurozone industrial production is seen -0.1% M/M (prev. -0.2%) and -0.8% Y/Y (prev. -1.2%). In North America, US July PPI headline is expected to rise 0.2% M/M (prev. -0.3%), with the annual rate easing to 4.9% Y/Y (prev. 5.5%); the core rate of PPI is seen +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%), and the annual rate is seen falling to 4.2% Y/Y (prev. 4.7%). Weekly US initial jobless claims are seen ticking up a touch to 202K (prev. 199K), while continuing claims are seen relatively unchanged at 1.8mln (prev. 1.801mln).
• CENTRAL BANKS: Today’s Fedspeak includes Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter, hawk) who will participate in a moderated Q&A; Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter, neutral) speaks on policy and the economy.
• EARNINGS: Notable US listed companies reporting today include: Applied Materials (AMAT), JD.com (JD), Tapestry (TPR).
• SUPPLY: US sells USD 25bln of 30-year bonds.
• ENERGY: EIA reports weekly natural gas stocks change (prev. +33bcf).
• US PPI (13:30BST/08:30EDT): Analysts expect headline PPI to rise by 0.2% M/M in July (prev. -0.3%), with the annual rate cooling to 4.9% Y/Y (from 5.5%). Core PPI is seen +0.3% M/M, picking up from a prior 0.2%, though the annual rate is seen falling to 4.2% Y/Y (from 4.7%). On Wednesday, CPI data for July was in line with expectations, showing a cooling vs June, which helped trim some Fed hike bets. With the PPI and CPI in hand, econometricians will be able to gauge how the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, PCE (due 26th August), will look; writing after the CPI release, analysts at Goldman Sachs said they initially expect July core PCE to rise 0.23% M/M, noting that upcoming methodology changes could create volatility in PCE readings and lower annual core inflation; Pantheon Macroeconomics sees July’s core PCE rising 0.16% M/M, while Oxford Economics sees 0.2% M/M. The projections will be revised after the PPI release.

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS:

• US-Iran - A White House official said US sanctions and a naval blockade have left Iran completely bankrupt, adding that President Trump has multiple tools available to increase pressure on Tehran in the coming months. Iranian authorities said the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked until Iran’s conditions are met; a source told Al-Mayadeen there had been no policy change, warning ships against breaching Iranian procedures, and stating that large vessels cannot safely transit under current conditions.
• US Pacific Bases - A Pentagon inspector general advisory warned of severe degradation across 11 US military facilities in the Pacific, Bloomberg reports. Problems included corrosion, structural damage, mould, asbestos and water intrusion, affecting operational infrastructure and housing.
• US Cyber Security - The US will allow private companies to conduct offensive cyber operations against foreign cyber-enabled criminal organisations, under federal oversight, Bloomberg reports. A memo signed by President Trump creates a Department of Homeland Security programme coordinated with the DoJ.
• White House Press Secretary - White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will leave her role later this month to spend more time with her family; she will become an outside adviser to President Trump. Trump has not yet named a successor.
• Russia-Japan - Russian President Putin made his first visit to Iturup, an island controlled by Russia but claimed by Japan, prompting a protest from Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi. Putin inspected a fish processing plant and said Russia remains open to seeking a peace treaty with Japan despite the territorial dispute.

TRADE:

• Tariff Refunds - WSJ notes that more than 40 S&P 500 companies reported about USD 9.6bln in tariff refunds, including at least USD 2.1bln already received in cash. The report says that the refunds are “turbocharging” earnings. Apple (AAPL) reported nearly USD 2.2bln, Nike (NKE) USD 986mln, FedEx (FDX) about USD 800mln, Amazon (AMZN) USD 640mln, and General Motors (GM) USD 500mln. Some companies are passing refunds to customers.
• US-Canada - Canada and the US are not yet ready to reach a tariff deal, with Canada dissatisfied with Washington’s latest offer to reduce some sectoral tariffs, CBC News reports. Negotiators are holding daily talks ahead of 19th August, when the US has threatened 50% tariffs on hundreds of Canadian goods. The US seeks preferential access to Canadian critical minerals.
• US-Mexico - Mexico is urging the US to lower tariffs on North American vehicles during USMCA talks, WSJ reports. The proposal would tax only components produced outside North America, and cut the headline tariff on non-compliant regional vehicles from 25% to between 5-10%. Canada has presented a similar plan.

MACRO:

• BoJ - Japan’s government reportedly supports a near-term BoJ rate hike, potentially in September or October, Bloomberg reports. JPY weakness, inflation concerns and a desire to reinforce recent US-Japan currency intervention are aligning government and central bank views, the report says. Markets are currently pricing around 74% chance of a September hike.
• Japan PPI - Japan’s producer prices rose 7.2% Y/Y in July (exp. 7.4%, prev. 7.3%), rising +0.1% M/M (exp. 0.6%, prev. 0.4%)), led by oil and coal products, chemicals and non-ferrous metals.
• BoK - South Korea’s central bank purchased gold-linked assets for the first time since 2013, holding 679,765 SPDR Gold Shares worth about USD 250mln at the end of Q2, Bloomberg reports. The ETF investment forms part of FX reserves, and does not increase official bullion holdings, which remain around 104.4 tonnes.
• Brazil Fiscal - Brazil’s Congress approved measures to curb mandatory spending growth in the 2027 budget. Finance Minister Durigan said the changes could reduce mandatory spending by BRL 10bln next year. If fiscal projections show a primary deficit, some expenditures would be capped within the government’s 0.6-2.5% real annual spending-growth limit, Bloomberg says.
• UK GDP - Prelim UK Q2 GDP growth printed 0.4% Q/Q (exp. 0.4%, prev. 0.6%), with the annual rate at 1.2% Y/Y (exp. 1.1%, prev. 0.9%). For June, GDP rose 0.3% M/M (exp. 0.0%), and the annual rate rose to 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 0.8%, prev. 1.2%). The ONS noted that growth in Q2 slowed after a strong start to 2026 but remained relatively robust. Services were the main driver, led by computer programming and advertising, while construction also grew and production was broadly flat. June services benefited from good weather and sporting events, while manufacturing growth was offset by weaker power generation and sewerage. Analysts note that while the GDP data were stronger than expected overall, June details were weaker, and May was revised down; still, the data does little to alter expectations for an extended BoE hold, but may provide support to policymakers who put forward dovish arguments at the confab.

INDICES:

• MSCI - MSCI will add 55 securities to and delete 92 from the MSCI ACWI Index in its August 2026 review. Major MSCI World additions include SanDisk (SNDK), Carpenter Technology (CRS) and ATI (ATI), while Z.AI (KNWAY), Nanya Technology (2408 TT) and Guangdong Dtech Technology (301377 SS) are among the largest Emerging Markets additions. Changes take effect after the 31st August close.

13-F FILINGS:

• Pershing Square - New buys: NFLX, V, MA, SPGI, ICE, ALC.
• Trian Fund Management - Increases: GEHC, WEN. Cuts: JHG, IVZ.

TECH:

• Apple (AAPL) - Apple secured a temporary Supreme Court pause in lower-court proceedings related to its App Store dispute with Epic Games; Justice Elena Kagan halted proceedings until 5pm Washington time on Thursday while the court considers Apple’s request for a longer stay. Separately, Apple is discussing multiyear deals with publishers to use their content for current news and information in its AI-powered Siri, WSJ reports. Apple has proposed variable payments when partner content is used, and has also discussed a possible nine-figure budget. Siri AI is expected to roll out later this year.
• Anthropic - Anthropic is in talks to acquire AI startup Decart AI for about USD 6bln, Bloomberg reports. Decart, which raised USD 300mln in May at a valuation of almost USD 4bln, develops world models and software aimed at reducing AI training costs by improving chip efficiency. The deal is not final and could fall through.
• Lenovo Group (LNVGY) - Lenovo shares surged overnight after quarterly revenue rose 43%, beating analyst estimates, and reinforcing optimism around AI-driven demand. Citi said the results supported Lenovo’s structural AI growth story, while server demand from data centre investment remains a key earnings driver.
• Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) - Shares fell almost 5% in extended trading despite beating quarterly earnings and revenue expectations, as well as issuing stronger than expected guidance; analysts note that the stock had already rallied sharply on optimism around its growing role in AI infrastructure going into earnings. Q4 adj. EPS 1.22 (exp. 1.17), Q4 revenue USD 17.3bln (exp. 16.83bln). Product orders +35% Y/Y, hyperscale orders more than doubled, and RPO +7% Y/Y to USD 46.7bln, with product RPO +9%, and services RPO +6%. Adj. gross margin 66.3%, product margin 64.8%, services margin of 71.6%. CEO said AI momentum remains broad, while the networking refresh cycle is still in its early stages. Sees Q1 adj. EPS between 1.32-1.34 (exp. 1.14), Q1 revenue between USD 18.0-18.2bln (exp. 16.66bln). For FY27, sees adj. EPS between 5.05-5.11 (exp. 4.80), revenue between USD 72.2-73.4bln (exp. 68.82bln), and FY27 AI infrastructure revenue of USD 7.5bln, with AI orders expected to be meaningfully higher than in FY26.
• Coherent Corp. (COHR) - Coherent fell over 2% in extended US trading, despite a quarterly beat and strong outlook, as elevated investor expectations for optical networking suppliers limited the upside. Q4 adj. EPS 1.74 (exp. 1.62), Q4 revenue USD 2.05bln (exp. 1.98bln). Revenue reached a record for the seventh consecutive quarter, while management highlighted significant gross-margin expansion and adj. EPS growth at more than twice the rate of revenue growth in FY26. CEO said demand remains outstanding, led by AI data centres and the shift from copper and electrical interconnects towards optical connectivity, which is materially expanding its addressable market. It is increasing manufacturing capacity to meet accelerating demand, while maintaining disciplined capital allocation. Sees Q1 adj. EPS between 1.85-2.05 (exp. 1.77), Q1 revenue between USD 2.2-2.4bln (exp. 2.13bln).
• Cerebras Systems (CBRS) - Shares fell 17% in extended trading after quarterly revenue missed expectations and gross margins declined, raising concerns about scaling and customer adoption, despite higher FY revenue and margin outlooks. Q2 adj. EBITDA -53.1mln (vs -39.3mln Y/Y), Q2 revenue USD 210mln (exp. 193.6mln). Core revenue more than doubled Y/Y, and cloud revenue nearly quadrupled, while core gross and operating margins improved materially from a year earlier. RPO reached USD 25.4bln. CEO said demand for fast AI inference is enormous, prompting Cerebras to secure additional data centre capacity and expand manufacturing, with customers and partners including OpenAI, AWS, AMD and CrowdStrike. Sees Q3 revenue between USD 214-216mln (exp. 212.0mln), Q3 core gross margin between 38-40%. Raises FY26 revenue view to between USD 880-890mln (exp. 864.4mln; prev. saw 855-865mln), and raises FY26 gross margin guidance to between 41-43% (prev. saw 38-41%). Aims to more than triple revenue in FY27.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) - CoreWeave warned that shifting from its exclusive use of Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs could require significant time, investment and resources if customer demand changes, Bloomberg reports. Nvidia supplies all GPUs currently used by CoreWeave customers, and owns 10% of the company.
• Kioxia (KXIAY) - YMTC surpassed Kioxia in global NAND bit shipments for the first time in Q2, while narrowing the gap with Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) and SK Hynix (SKHY), according to Counterpoint. YMTC still ranked fifth by sales behind Micron (MU) and Kioxia, as its higher shipment scale has yet to translate into comparable revenue.
• Adyen (ADYEY) - H1 revenue EUR 1.30bln (exp. 1.29bln), processed volume +24% Y/Y to EUR 803.8bln; adj. EBITDA EUR 641.5mln (exp. 645mln); raised FY26 net revenue growth guidance to 21-23% (from 20-22%); has also agreed to acquire Talon.One for EUR 750mln, and Orb for USD 335mln.

COMMUNICATIONS:

• Meta Platforms (META) - Meta said it has removed access to more than 750K Instagram and Facebook accounts in Australia believed to belong to users under 16. The total includes over 500K accounts removed before the youth social media ban took effect in December, comprising 462K Instagram accounts and 294K Facebook accounts.
• StubHub Holdings (STUB) - StubHub fell 12% afterhours following a Q2 profit miss, and gross margins below expectations, despite stronger than expected revenue and robust live-event demand. Q2 EPS 0.00 (exp. 0.07), Q2 revenue USD 573.1mln (exp. 513.42mln), Q2 adj. gross margin 82.2% (exp. 84.3%). Revenue was supported by strong live-event demand and a record-setting World Cup. CEO said the quarter highlighted StubHub’s scale and leadership in the ticket resale market, with management focused on improving the fan experience, expanding access to live events and growing its addressable market. Sees FY26 adj. EBITDA between USD 400-420mln, and FY26 gross merchandise sales between USD 10.1-10.3bln.

CONSUMER CYCLICALS:

• Ford (F) - Ford plans to move production of some Lincoln models from China to the US beginning in 2030, Reuters reports. CEO Jim Farley said tariffs were the main driver, with the China-built Lincoln Nautilus facing a 52.5% US tariff. Connected Vehicle Rule restrictions on some Chinese technology also influenced the decision.
• Evolution (EVVTY) - Candle Lake launched a mandatory cash offer for Evolution at SEK 695/shr, valuing the company at about SEK 132bln, Bloomberg reports. The bid follows Candle Lake raising its stake to about 30%, triggering Swedish takeover rules. The offer is fully financed and subject to regulatory approvals, with acceptance expected from around 17th August to mid-September.
• Pandora (PNDRY) - Q2 revenue DKK 7.22bln (exp. 7.2bln), net income DKK 875mln (exp. 640mln); raised FY26 revenue growth guidance to 0-3% (from -1 to 2%) and EBIT margin guidance to 22-23% (from 21-22%), partly reflecting a US tariff refund.
• Entain (GMVHY) - H1 2026 net gaming revenue growth +5%, underlying EBITDA -2% Y/Y at GBP 479mln (exp. 455mln). World Cup engagement and cost cuts helped offset higher UK gambling taxes. Backed its FY26 online NGR growth guidance of 5-7%.

CONSUMER STAPLES:

• Grocery Outlet (GO) - Q2 adj. EPS 0.20 (exp. 0.12), Q2 revenue USD 1.19bln (exp. 1.17bln). Q2 comps -0.3% Y/Y, but it said that trends improved sequentially from Q1 as basket performance strengthened and traffic remained positive. CEO said initiatives to improve the opportunistic assortment and value perception are gaining traction, while better support for independent operators should help restore profit growth. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 0.51-0.55 (exp. 0.50), FY26 revenue between USD 4.70-4.72bln (exp. 4.66bln), and FY26 comps growth between -0.5% and 0.0%.

ENERGY:

• South Korea LNG - South Korean shipping companies SK Shipping and H-Line Shipping (both owned by private equity firm Hahn & Co.) will swap tankers and contracts to create one of the world’s largest LNG carrier operators, Bloomberg reports. SK Shipping will receive 16 LNG vessels and long-term contracts from H-Line in exchange for 12 tankers, their contracts, and approximately USD 300mln in cash, making SK the world’s third-largest LNG carrier operator.

MATERIALS:

• Codelco - Codelco expects 2026 copper production below its previously targeted 1.34mln tonnes, Bloomberg reports. The Chilean state miner is shifting from growth targets toward stabilising output near current levels and prioritising profitability. Management is also considering lower capital spending, asset sales and more private-sector partnerships while seeking to contain its USD 27bln debt burden, the report adds.
• US Lithium Production - Researchers have warned that water scarcity poses a growing legal and financial obstacle to US domestic lithium production, particularly in the western states, FT reports. Around 115 mines have been proposed, but researchers warn scarcity could cause permitting delays, litigation and higher recycling costs. Rystad expects US lithium output to meet only 5% of global demand by 2030.
• Rio Tinto (RIO) - Australia will provide AUD 2.5bln to keep Rio Tinto’s Tomago aluminium smelter operating beyond 2028. The package, jointly funded by federal and New South Wales governments, supports a 10-year power deal from 2029-2038, and 3GW of new generation. Tomago will invest at least AUD 1.1bln, with power expected to be fully renewable from 2033.
• Antofagasta (ANFGY) - H1 2026 revenue USD 4.48bln (prev. 3.8bln), EBITDA USD 2.84bln (prev. 2.23bln), pretax profit USD 2.0bln (prev. 1.16bln); cut FY26 copper production guidance to 625-655K tonnes (from 650-700K) after a July shutdown at Los Pelambres following extreme rains.
• Thyssenkrupp (TKAMY) - Thyssenkrupp raised the lower end of its FY adj. EBIT guidance to EUR 600mln (from EUR 500mln). Q3 adj. EBIT rose to EUR 183mln, with steel benefiting from restructuring, cost cuts and lower raw-material costs, while naval earnings improved on higher-margin submarine orders.
• H.B. Fuller (FUL) - H.B. Fuller confirmed receiving an unsolicited proposal from Ancora Holdings to acquire its Building Adhesives Solutions business for between USD 1.1-1.2bln in cash. The proposal is Ancora’s first offer for the business following earlier verbal interest. H.B. Fuller’s board will evaluate the offer with financial and legal advisers.

INDUSTRIALS:

• Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Lockheed was awarded a USD 211.44mln Missile Defence Agency contract modification under a UAE Foreign Military Sales case, increasing the total contract value to USD 1.05bln.
• Maersk (AMKBY) - Q2 2026 revenue USD 15.76bln (exp. 14.1bln), Q2 EBIT USD 1.57bln (exp. 0.54bln); raised FY26 guidance for adj. EBITDA to USD 10.5-12.5bln, and adj. EBIT of USD 4.5-6.5bln, supported by strong demand and higher freight rates amid Middle East disruptions.
• Hapag-Lloyd (HPGLY) - Q2 2026 revenue USD 5.84bln (prev. 5.27bln), EBITDA USD 829mln (prev. 820mln), EBIT USD 176mln (prev. 189mln); raised FY26 EBITDA guidance to USD 2.7-3.7bln, sees FY26 EBIT of USD 0.1-1.1bln, while citing significant uncertainty from freight rates and the Middle East conflict.

FINANCIALS:

• Pershing Square (PS) - Q2 distributable EPS 0.14 (exp. 0.12), Q2 revenue USD 54.18mln (exp. 75.8mln). AUM +22.1% Y/Y to USD 32.49bln, supported by the USD 5bln IPO of PSUS, deployment of PSUS capital into existing and new investments, and continued performance across portfolio companies. CEO Bill Ackman and CIO Ryan Israel said the period since the IPO had been highly productive, with market volatility helping the firm deploy new capital efficiently.

REAL ESTATE:

• AvalonBay Communities (AVB), Equity Residential (EQR) - AvalonBay and Equity Residential shareholders approved their pending merger of equals, with more than 99% of votes cast supporting the required proposals. The deal is expected to close on 17th August.

UTILITIES:

• NextEra Energy (NEE) - NextEra Energy signed definitive agreements with the US Commerce Department and Japan to fund development and operation of up to 10GW of natural gas-powered generation in Texas and Pennsylvania. The projects were selected under Japan’s USD 550bln US investment commitment.

HEALTHCARE:

• Bayer (BAYRY) - China’s NMPA has accepted for review its application for aflibercept 8mg to treat macular oedema following retinal vein occlusion.
• Zealand Pharma (ZLDPF), Royalty Pharma (RPRX) - Zealand Pharma agreed to sell most of its rusfertide economics to Royalty Pharma for USD 100mln. Zealand will receive USD 50mln upfront and USD 50mln one year after closing. It is selling rights including a 1% royalty and milestones, while retaining a 0.25% royalty on annual global sales above USD 1.5bln.