[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed contained once again into US PPI

This is the standard inter-meeting sequencing: CPI sets the frame, PPI refines the inputs into the core PCE estimate, and it is the PCE print that actually moves the policy debate.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed contained once again into US PPI

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  • Once again, a contained start for fixed income. Major macro updates relatively light, and nothing that changes the narrative for the complex. Today, the focus is on US PPI for July, which will inform/update the calls ahead of PCE after Wednesday's CPI; as a reminder, the series sparked a modest dovish reaction in near-term Fed pricing.
  • Since, that has extended. Pre-data, September was near a coin-flip between a hike and a hold. After the data, it edged marginally in favour of a hold. At the time of writing, CME FedWatch implies a 64% chance of a hold, significantly higher than the 45% implies this time last week (i.e. pre-NFP).
  • USTs flat in 108-15 to 108-23 parameters, looking to PPI as mentioned before Fed's Barkin (2027) and Hammack (2026), and while both have spoken recently and updated view post-CPI will be pertinent.
  • Bunds in-fitting with the above, newsflow for the bloc has been and is scheduled to remain light. Currently a few ticks firmer in 124.65-83 parameters.
  • A similar picture for Gilts, with no lasting reaction at the open to the morning's GDP series which, in short, was stronger-than-expected for the GDP components aside from an in-line Q2 Q/Q print. However, the series is caveated by a weaker-than-expected breakdown for June and downward revisions to the May GDP series.
  • Overall, the UK data does not change the extended hold narrative for the BoE. However, it does work in favour of those who raised dovish points at the last gathering.
Context

Episodes of this kind have tended to see PPI produce only modest, short-lived repricing in the front end unless it materially shifts the PCE arithmetic, with the larger moves reserved for the PCE release itself and for Fed commentary that confirms or contradicts the pricing drift. The notable feature here is the steady migration of September pricing toward a hold over the week, a pattern consistent with gradual accumulation of data rather than any single catalyst; such drift has historically been sticky unless a named official pushes back, which is why post-CPI remarks from sitting voters carry more weight than usual in a thin newsflow window. Rangebound trade in USTs, Bunds and Gilts ahead of the data is the established pattern when conviction is low and the calendar is back-loaded. On the UK side, the distinction that matters is headline GDP versus the monthly breakdown and revisions; mixed prints of this kind have typically left the prevailing BoE hold narrative intact while giving the dovish wing ammunition, and gilt reactions have tended to fade without a follow-through catalyst. Worth noting is that the next genuine test is the PCE print and the tone of scheduled Fed speakers, not today's release in isolation.

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